Impact of electric vehicle development on China’s energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

This study investigates the impact of electric vehicle development on China’s greenhouse gas emissions and fossil energy consumption from a life cycle perspective. Based on vehicle technology and China’s energy development plan, the potential for energy conservation and greenhouse gas emissions reduction of electric vehicles is explored. Utilizing a logistic model, the market evolution of electric vehicles under different timing for banning the sale of the traditional fuel vehicle is simulated and analyzed, and the corresponding effect on energy conservation and greenhouse gas emissions reduction is also examined. The results show that the high proportion of coal-fired thermal power limits the energy saving and emission reduction potential of electric vehicles in China. The life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and fossil energy consumption intensities of electric vehicles in various regions are approximately − 2.63%–30.98% (− 7.63–89.81 g CO2-eq/km) and 17.71%–43.16% (0.67–1.64 MJ/km) lower than those of traditional fuel vehicles, respectively. As the proportion of renewable electricity generation continues to increase, by 2050, replacing traditional fuel vehicles with electric vehicles can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 22.32% and fossil energy consumption by 29.94% in all regions of China. In addition, if China plans to ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicle between 2040 and 2060, the cumulative fossil energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions during the period of 2020–2050 can reach approximately 25.70–73.47 million TJ and 1511.95–4303.87 million tons of CO2-eq, respectively.