Occurrence and Prediction of Flare After Tapering of Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors in Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis

Objective Patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) in clinical remission tapered tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapy according to a clinical guideline. Over a 2-year follow-up period, we aimed to investigate flare frequency, dose at which flare occurred, type of flare, and predictors thereof. Methods Patients in clinical remission (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index [BASDAI] < 40, physician global score < 40, and without disease activity the previous year) tapered TNFi to two-thirds the standard dose at baseline, half at week 16, one-third at week 32, and discontinued at week 48. Flares were defined as BASDAI flare (BASDAI ≥ 40 and change ≥ 20 since inclusion), and/or clinical flare (development of inflammatory back pain, musculoskeletal or extraarticular manifestations, and/or Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score [ASDAS] ≥ 0.9), and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) flare (≥ 2 new or worsened inflammatory lesions). Results Of 108 patients, 106 (99%) flared before 2-year follow-up: 29 patients (27%) at two-thirds standard dose, 21 (20%) at half dose, 29 (27%) at one-third dose, and 27 (25%) after discontinuation. Regarding type of flare, 105 (99%) had clinical flares, 25 (24%) had BASDAI flares, and 23 (29% of patients with MRI at flare available) had MRI flares. Forty-one patients (41%) fulfilled the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) definition of clinically important worsening (≥ 0.9 increase since baseline). Higher baseline physician global score was an independent predictor of flare after tapering to two-thirds (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.41, P = 0.01). Changes in clinical and/or imaging variables in the 16 weeks prior to tapering did not predict flare. Conclusion Almost all (99%) patients with axSpA in clinical remission experienced flare during tapering to discontinuation, but in over half of these patients, flare did not occur before receiving one-third dose or less. Higher physician global score was an independent predictor of flare.