Added value of non-contrast CT and CT perfusion markers for prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage expansion and outcome

To test the hypothesis that the combined analysis of non-contrast CT (NCCT) and CT perfusion (CTP) imaging markers improves prediction of hematoma expansion (HE) and outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).Retrospective, single-center analysis of patients with primary ICH undergoing NCCT and CTP within 6 h from onset. NCCT images were assessed for the presence of intrahematomal hypodensity and shape irregularity. Perihematomal cerebral blood volume and spot sign were assessed on CTP. The main outcomes of the analysis were HE (growth > 6 mL and/or > 33%) and poor functional prognosis (90 days modified Rankin Scale 3-6). Predictors of HE and outcome were explored with logistic regression.A total of 150 subjects were included (median age 68, 47.1% males) of whom 54 (36%) had HE and 52 (34.7%) had poor outcome. The number of imaging markers on baseline imaging was independently associated with HE (odds ratio 2.66, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.17, p < 0.001) and outcome (odds ratio 1.64, 95% CI 1.06-2.56, p = 0.027). Patients with the simultaneous presence of all the four markers had the highest risk of HE and unfavorable prognosis (mean predicted probability of 91% and 79% respectively). The combined-markers analysis outperformed the sensitivity of the single markers analyzed separately. In particular, the presence of at least one marker identified patients with HE and poor outcome with 91% and 87% sensitivity respectively.NCCT and CTP markers provide additional yield in the prediction of HE and ICH outcome.• Perihematomal hypoperfusion is associated with hematoma expansion and poor outcome in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. • Non-contrast CT and CT perfusion markers improve prediction of hematoma expansion and unfavorable prognosis. • A multimodal CT protocol including CT perfusion will help the identification of patients at high risk of clinical deterioration and poor outcome.