投影(关系代数)
碳纤维
温室气体
中国
还原(数学)
环境科学
能源消耗
排放清单
自然资源经济学
环境经济学
经济
计算机科学
气象学
数学
工程类
地理
空气质量指数
算法
几何学
复合数
生态学
考古
电气工程
生物
作者
Jingjing Zhai,Lihui She,Sipeng Hao,Haoming Liu
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.egyr.2023.04.121
摘要
At the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, president Xi Jinping proposed to reach "carbon peak" by 2030 and strive to achieve the "carbon neutrality" by 2060. Research on carbon emission projections is of positive significance to facilitate the effective application of "double carbon" in China. Therefore, this paper proposes a regional carbon emission projection method. Firstly, based on the regional resource endowment and historical data on energy consumption, this paper forecasts the energy structure of each sector in the region through the Markov model and the energy demand of each sector in the region through the LEAP model. Then, the CO2 emission factor of each energy source is calculated. Finally, the projection of regional CO2 emissions under different policy and technology scenarios is provided by considering the influence of different factors on future regional carbon emissions, and the emission reduction potential is analyzed based on the projection results. To check the effectiveness of the presented method, this paper carries out a case study of regional CO2 emission in a city in China and analyzes the emission decrease effect of each proposed initiative according to the projected results. The results of the case study demonstrate that the presented method can effectively assess the regional CO2 emissions and the reduction potential of different emission reduction measures.
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