Economy decarbonization using green hydrogen and electricity, forecasts and sensitivity analysis for the Canarian Islands in 2040

The complete implementation of clean energies in the final uses of energy is essential to meet the challenge of total decarbonization of the European economy. Although the autonomous operation of full renewable systems is difficult without the support of reliable generation sources. Therefore, this work explores their use in the Canary Archipelago, which has a high energy demand of about 19 TWh/year according to forecasts for 2040. Currently, the archipelago faces economic, social and environmental challenges to overcome its deep dependence on fossil fuels. One of the most delicate issues to solve stems from the intrinsic variability of the meteorological conditions on which the two main sources of renewable generation, the sun and the wind, are based. Therefore, the use of renewable systems is inescapably linked to the use of storage technologies and/or other generation sources that provide system reliability. For these purposes, this research work has modeled using HOMER software two scenarios that are considered the most probable for the year 2040. These scenarios include the consideration of the two currently used energy carriers, electricity and hydrogen. The first scenario maximizes the use of electricity in final energy consumption, while the second maximizes hydrogen demands. In both cases, the optimal generation mix has been determined, primarily based on economic criteria, but also taking into consideration the different aspects of engineering and land occupation, finally obtaining the lowest Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE). Then, the islands' most widespread renewable resources, solar and wind, have been harnessed. But other natural resources of the islands have also been used, such as geothermal energy, given the volcanic origin of the islands, as well as their own biomass resources. In addition, storage in the form of reversible pumping has also been maximized, taking full advantage of the different locations on the islands, given their rugged terrain. The simulations reach system LCOEs below 10 c€/kWh and surpluses below 10 % of the generated energy. Demonstrating the suitability and capacity of these fully renewable systems to operate reliably and autonomously, being able to generate, store and distribute the necessary energy to eliminate the use of fossil fuels and, therefore, be free of greenhouse gases (GHG).