Echocardiographic derived forward left ventricular output improves risk prediction in systolic heart failure

Background and Aims Though widely used to classify heart failure (HF) patients, the prognostic role of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is debated. We hypothesized that the echocardiographic measures of forward LV output, being more representative of cardiac hemodynamics, may improve risk prediction in a large cohort of HF patients with systolic dysfunction. Methods Consecutive stable HF patients with LVEF <50% on guideline-recommended therapies undergoing an echocardiography including the evaluation of forward LV output (i.e., LV outflow tract velocity-time integral [LVOT-VTI], stroke volume index [SVi], and cardiac index [CI]) over a 6-year period, were selected and followed-up for the endpoint of cardiac and all-cause death. Results Among the 1,509 patients analyzed (71±12 years, 75% males, LVEF 35±9%), 328 (22%) died during a median 28-month (14-40) follow-up, 165 (11%) of which for cardiac causes. At multivariable regression analysis, LVOT-VTI (<0.001), SVi (p<0.001), and CI (p<0.001), but not LVEF (p>0.05), predicted cardiac and all-cause death. The optimal prognostic cut-offs for LVOT-VTI, SVi, and CI were 15 cm, 38 mL/m2, and 2 L/min/m2, respectively. Adding each of these measures to a multivariable risk model (including clinical, biohumoral, and echocardiographic markers) improved risk prediction (p<0.001). Among the different measures of forward LV output, CI was less accurate than LVOT-VTI and SVi. Conclusion The echocardiographic evaluation of forward LV output improves risk prediction in HF patients across a wide LVEF spectrum over other well-established clinical, biohumoral, and echocardiographic prognostic markers.