Incidence and risk factors of omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection among vaccinated and boosted individuals.

Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been shown to be safe and effective against infection and severe COVID-19 disease worldwide. Certain co-morbid conditions cause immune dysfunction and may reduce immune response to vaccination. In contrast, those with co-morbidities may practice infection prevention strategies. Thus, the real-world clinical impact of co-morbidities on SARS-CoV-2 infection in the recent post-vaccination period is not well established. We performed this study to understand the epidemiology of Omicron breakthrough infection and evaluate associations with number of comorbidities in a vaccinated and boosted population. Methods and Findings We performed a retrospective clinical cohort study utilizing the Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse. Our study population was identified as fully vaccinated adults with at least one booster. The primary risk factor of interest was the number of co-morbidities. Our primary outcome was incidence and time to first positive SARS-CoV-2 molecular test in the Omicron predominant era. We performed multivariable analyses stratified by calendar time using Cox modeling to determine hazard of SARS-CoV-2. In total, 133,191 patients were analyzed. Having 3+ comorbidities was associated with increased hazard for breakthrough (HR=1.2 CI 1.2-1.6). During the second half of the study, having 2 comorbidities (HR= 1.1 95% CI 1.02-1.2) and having 3+ comorbidities (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5-1.9) were associated with increased hazard for Omicron breakthrough. Older age was associated with decreased hazard in the first 6 months of follow-up. Interaction terms for calendar time indicated significant changes in hazard for many factors between the first and second halves of the follow-up period. Conclusions Omicron breakthrough is common with significantly higher risk for our most vulnerable patients with multiple co-morbidities. Age related behavioral factors play an important role in breakthrough infection with the highest incidence among young adults. Our findings reflect real-world differences in immunity and exposure risk behaviors for populations vulnerable to COVID-19.