Can Mercury Influence Carbon Dioxide Levels? Implications for the Implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury

The Paris Agreement and the Minamata Convention on Mercury are two of the most important environmental conventions being implemented concurrently, with a focus on reducing carbon and mercury emissions, respectively. The relation between mercury and carbon influences the interactions and outcomes of these two conventions. This perspective investigates the link between mercury and CO2, assessing the consequences and exploring the policy implications of this link. We present scientific evidence showing that mercury and CO2 levels are negatively correlated under natural conditions. As a result of this negative correlation, the CO2 level under the current mercury reduction scenario is predicted to be 2.4–10.1 ppm higher than the no action scenario by 2050, equivalent to 1.0–4.8 years of CO2 increase due to human activity. The underlying causations of this negative correlation are complex and need further research. Economic analysis indicates that there is a trade-off between the benefits and costs of mercury reduction actions. As reducing mercury emission may inadvertently undermine efforts to achieve climate goals, we advocate for devising a coordinated implementation strategy for carbon and mercury conventions to maximize synergies and reduce trade-offs.