Spatial distributed characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions based on fossil energy consumption and their driving factors at provincial scale in China

The spatial distribution characteristics of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of coal, crude oil and natural gas in China during 2019 were revealed through Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method. Then spatial differences of the impacts of socio-economic factors on CO2 emissions were discussed by using geographical weighted regression (GWR) model. Furthermore, the relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions was explored by combing the center of gravity model with coupling coordination development degree model. The findings demonstrate that the high spatial agglomeration effect and risk areas of coal-based CO2 emissions are concentrated in the northern region (the maximum emissions up to 1005.09 Mt), and the same type of natural gas-based CO2 emissions are distributed in the central region, while the low spatial agglomeration effect and risk areas of crude oil-based CO2 emissions are mainly in the western region. Under the positive impact from energy intensity (average influence coefficient is 1.59), CO2 emissions show a good coupling trend with economic urbanization, but present a spatial differentiation of unbalanced western and coordinated eastern regions with population urbanization. This study enriches the content of energy-based carbon emissions from geographic and management disciplines, also gives scientific foundation for differential formulation of carbon emission reduction policies.