Shock Index, Modified Shock Index, and Age-adjusted Shock Index as Predictors of In-hospital Death in Acute Heart Failure. Sub Analysis of the ARGEN IC

Decompensated heart failure (DHF) is an important cause of in-hospital death in the coronary care unit. Estimating this risk becomes a clinical challenge. The shock index (IShock) and its variances have proven to be useful in predicting mortality in other pathologies and are easily obtained at admission. Evaluate the predictive capacity of IShock and its variants for in-hospital mortality in patients with DHF. Retrospective study of patients (p) prospectively and consecutively included in the ARGEN IC national registry. IShock, was calculated using the formula: HR/TAS, IShockM was calculated using HR/TAM, and IShock adjusted for age was calculated using the formula IShock x age. These indices were analyzed using the ROC curve and the Youden index to find the value that predicted in-hospital mortality with the greatest sensitivity and specificity. The prognostic value of the indices for in-hospital mortality was analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. Patients with cardiogenic shock were excluded from the analysis. Eight hundred seventy-nine patients. Age 74 years (IQR 25-75 64-83). 60% male. 74% hypertensive, 33% diabetic and 42% had ejection fraction <40%. In-hospital mortality was 6.6%. According to Youden 's test, the best value for predicting IShock mortality was 0.9, for IShockM of 1.26 with and for the adjusted IShock of 50.4. The last two showed an independent predictive value in different multivariate models. The IShockM and the IShock x age, taken at the patient´s admission for decompensated heart failure, are very easily obtained at no additional cost providing useful information on hospital major outcomes.