Shelf life estimation of glassy confections using moisture sorption isotherms

Abstract This study aimed to develop a mathematical model of moisture diffusion applied to estimate the shelf life of glassy confection. The model was applied and validated on hard candies produced on an industrial scale at temperatures of 20 and 25°C. The results of the predicted and experimental shelf life at 20°C and 75.5% RH were 41 and 39 days respectively. At 25°C and 75.3% RH, it was 24 and 23 days, respectively. The model proved to be reliable for estimating shelf life, with a low percent relative error. At both temperatures, the model proved to be reliable for predicting moisture content as a function of time with R 2 values close to the unit and mean percentage absolute error less than 10%. The method is practical and low cost and can be easily reproduced in future studies of stability in the confectionery industry. Practical Applications The problem of the stickiness of glassy confectionery on the packaging impacts consumer complaints, returns, and environmental impacts. The model applied in this study can be used as a basis for the development of practical and low‐cost methods for estimating expiration dates and shelf life in future studies of stability in the confectionery industry.