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Century‐Scale Reconstruction of Water Storage Changes of the Largest Lake in the Inner Mongolia Plateau Using a Machine Learning Approach

环境科学 比例(比率) 蓄水 水位 自然地理学 水平衡 偏移量(计算机科学) 中国 水文学(农业) 气候学 气象学 地理 地质学 计算机科学 地图学 海洋学 考古 岩土工程 程序设计语言 入口
作者
Chenyu Fan,Chunqiao Song,Kai Liu,Linghong Ke,Bin Xue,Chen Tan,Congsheng Fu,Jian Cheng
出处
期刊:Water Resources Research [Wiley]
卷期号:57 (2) 被引量:55
标识
DOI:10.1029/2020wr028831
摘要

Abstract Lake Hulun is the fifth‐largest lake in China, playing a substantial role in maintaining the balance of the grassland ecosystem of the Mongolia Plateau, which is a crucial ecological barrier in North China. To better understand the changing characteristics of Lake Hulun and the driving mechanisms, it is necessary to investigate the water storage changes of Lake Hulun on extended timescales. The main objective of this study is to reconstruct the water storage time series of Lake Hulun over the past century. We employed a machine learning approach termed the extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost) to reconstruct the water storage changes over a one‐century timescale based on the generated bathymetry and satellite altimetry data and investigated the relationships with hydrological and climatic variables in long term. Results show that the water storage changes from 1961 to 2019 were featured by four fluctuation phases, with the highest water storage observed in 1991 (14.02 Gt) and the lowest point in 2012 (5.18 Gt). The century‐scale reconstruction result reveals that the water storage of Lake Hulun reached the highest point in the 1960s within the period of 1910–2019. The lowest stage occurred in the sub‐period of the 1930s–1940s, which was even lower than the alerted shrinkage stage in 2012. The predictive model results indicate the effective performance of the XGBoost model in reconstructing century‐scale water storage variations, with the mean absolute error of 0.68, normalized root mean square error of 0.11, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.97, and correlation coefficient of 0.94. The annual fluctuations of water storage were mostly affected by precipitation, followed by vapor pressure, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and wet day frequency. The dominating characteristics of different variables vary evidently with different sub‐periods. The atmospheric circulations of the Arctic Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation have tight associations with the water storage variations of Lake Hulun, which change with different study periods.
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