Data‐driven dynamical modelling of the transmission of African swine fever in a few places in China

剔除 爆发 传输(电信) 基本再生数 生物 中国 人口学 兽医学 动物科学 地理 医学 病毒学 计算机科学 人口 牧群 考古 社会学 电信
作者
Juan Li,Jin Zhou,Youming Wang,Xiaojin Sun,Quangang Xu,Jian Kang,Biao Huang,Huaiping Zhu
出处
期刊:Transboundary and Emerging Diseases [Wiley]
卷期号:69 (4) 被引量:13
标识
DOI:10.1111/tbed.14345
摘要

Since the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Shengyang, it has continued spreading in China. In the early stage of the epidemic, multi-point and concentrated outbreaks were mainly in the swill feeding areas. In this paper, we developed compartmental models to investigate the transmission of ASF in several raising units including Guquan, Jinba and Liancheng. Using the data collected from these three infected premises, we calibrated the models to estimate that the average incubation period was between 8 and 11 days, the onset period was about 2-3 days and the basic reproductive number was about 4.83-11.90. We also estimated the infection on the day before culling to be 45.24% (Guquan), 89.20% (Jinba) and 16.35% (Liancheng), respectively. The infection rate of Guquan could reach about 74.8% if culling were postponed by 2 days. We found that the infection was significantly higher than the morbidities (22.11% (Guquan), 49.35% (Jinba) and 12.94% (Liancheng)) calculated by actual statistical data. Besides, we simulated and compared the control effect of stopping transport, disinfecting, stopping swill and culling. Our findings suggest that any single measure was not enough to prevent the spread of ASF on a regional level but the combined measures is the key. Under the current situation, fully culling was recognized as most effective in controlling the epidemic, despite the culling of uninfected pigs.
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