Enhancing the ecological realism of evolutionary mismatch theory

Following rapid environmental change, why do some animals thrive, while others struggle? We present an expanded, cue-response framework for predicting variation in behavioral responses to novel situations. We show how signal detection theory can be used when individuals have three behavioral options (approach, avoid, or ignore). Based on this theory, we outline predictions about which animals are more likely to make mistakes around novel conditions (i.e., fall for a trap or fail to use an undervalued resource) and the intensity of that mismatch (i.e., severe versus moderate). Explicitly considering three options provides a more holistic perspective and allows us to distinguish between severe and moderate traps, which could guide management strategies in a changing world.