Spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics and driving forces of carbon emissions in three Chinese urban agglomerations

Assessing carbon emissions in urban agglomerations has emerged as a pivotal step towards achieving carbon neutrality. In this study, panel data from 75 cities within the three largest urban agglomerations in China—the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, and Pearl River Delta (PRD)—were constructed to analyse the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions from 2005 to 2020. An indicator system was established, and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was used to investigate the driving forces of carbon emissions. The findings revealed a gradual increase in carbon emissions within these agglomerations, with a notable shift in their spatial distribution from metropolitan areas to broader urban agglomerations, exhibiting significant spatial correlation. Additionally, variations in carbon emissions were observed across different development stages. The SDM indicated that several factors, such as economic conditions, industrialization levels, and population size, influenced the carbon emissions of urban agglomerations. Nevertheless, the impact of these driving factors on carbon emissions was not constant and could be altered by other elements, including green technologies and governmental policies, indicating a decoupling effect between economic growth and carbon emissions. The insights from this study can assist policymakers in formulating strategies to curb carbon emissions and foster sustainable development.