Predictors of outcome in patients with moderate mixed aortic valve disease

Objectives Grading the severity of moderate mixed aortic stenosis and regurgitation (MAVD) is challenging and the disease poorly understood. Identifying markers of haemodynamic severity will improve risk stratification and potentially guide timely treatment. This study aims to identify prognostic haemodynamic markers in patients with moderate MAVD. Methods Moderate MAVD was defined as coexisting moderate aortic stenosis (aortic valve area (AVA) 1.0–1.5 cm 2 ) and moderate aortic regurgitation (vena contracta (VC) 0.3–0.6 cm). Consecutive patients diagnosed between 2015 and 2019 were included from a multicentre registry. The primary composite outcome of death or heart failure hospitalisation was evaluated among these patients. Demographics, comorbidities, echocardiography and treatment data were assessed for their prognostic significance. Results 207 patients with moderate MAVD were included, aged 78 (66–84) years, 56% male sex, AVA 1.2 (1.1–1.4) cm 2 and VC 0.4 (0.4–0.5) cm. Over a follow-up of 3.5 (2.5–4.7) years, the composite outcome was met in 89 patients (43%). Univariable associations with the primary outcome included older age, previous myocardial infarction, previous cerebrovascular event, atrial fibrillation, New York Heart Association >2, worse renal function, tricuspid regurgitation ≥2 and mitral regurgitation ≥2. Markers of biventricular systolic function, cardiac remodelling and transaortic valve haemodynamics demonstrated an inverse association with the primary composite outcome. In multivariable analysis, peak aortic jet velocity (Vmax) was independently and inversely associated with the composite outcome (HR: 0.63, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.93; p=0.021) in an adjusted model along with age (HR: 1.05, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.08; p<0.001), creatinine (HR: 1.002, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.003; p=0.005), previous cerebrovascular event (85% vs 42%; HR: 3.04, 95% CI 1.54 to 5.99; p=0.001) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HR: 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99; p=0.007). Patients with Vmax ≤2.8 m/s and LVEF ≤50% (n=27) had the worst outcome compared with the rest of the population (72% vs 41%; HR: 3.87, 95% CI 2.20 to 6.80; p<0.001). Conclusions Patients with truly moderate MAVD have a high incidence of death and heart failure hospitalisation (43% at 3.5 (2.5–4.7) years). Within this group, a high-risk group characterised by disproportionately low aortic Vmax (≤2.8 m/s) and adverse remodelling (LVEF ≤50%) have the worst outcomes.