变化(天文学)
债务
树皮(声音)
经济
统计
数学
货币经济学
业务
地理
林业
财务
物理
天体物理学
作者
Zhengyang Jiang,Hanno Lustig,Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh,Mindy Z. Xiaolan
摘要
ABSTRACT A higher U.S. government debt‐to‐output (D‐O) ratio does not forecast higher surpluses or lower returns on Treasurys in the future. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the variation in the current D‐O ratio. The market valuation of Treasurys is surprisingly insensitive to macro fundamentals. Instead, the future D‐O ratio accounts for most of the variation because the D‐O ratio is highly persistent. Systematic surplus forecast errors may help account for these findings. Since the start of the Global Financial Crisis, surplus projections have anticipated a large fiscal correction that failed to materialize.
科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI