列线图
医学
接收机工作特性
米兰标准
肝移植
肝细胞癌
比例危险模型
逻辑回归
肿瘤科
内科学
多元统计
移植
外科
统计
数学
作者
Yange Gu,Hongyuan Xue,Ensi Ma,Shengran Jiang,Jianhua Li,Zheng-Xin Wang
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.hbpd.2024.06.002
摘要
Liver transplantations (LTs) with extended criteria have produced surgical results comparable to those obtained with traditional standards. However, it is not sufficient to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after LT according to morphological criteria alone. The present study aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting HCC recurrence after LT using extended selection criteria. Retrospective data on patients with HCC, including pathology, serological markers and follow-up data, were collected from January 2015 to April 2020 at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify and construct the prognostic nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Kaplan-Meier curves, decision curve analyses (DCAs), calibration diagrams, net reclassification indices (NRIs) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) values were used to assess the prognostic capacity of the nomogram. A total of 301 patients with HCC who underwent LT were enrolled in the study. The nomogram was constructed, and the ROC curve showed good performance in predicting survival in both the development set (2/3) and the validation set (1/3) (the area under the curve reached 0.748 and 0.716, respectively). According to the median value of the risk score, the patients were categorized into the high- and low-risk groups, which had significantly different recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates (P < 0.01). Compared with the Milan criteria and University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, DCA revealed that the new nomogram model had the best net benefit in predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year RFS. The nomogram performed well for calibration, NRI and IDI improvement. The nomogram, based on the Milan criteria and serological markers, showed good accuracy in predicting the recurrence of HCC after LT using extended selection criteria.
科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI