[Analysis on the trend of liver cancer morbidity and mortality in certain district, Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, 2017 to 2019].

Objective: To analyze the trend of liver cancer morbidity and mortality among residents with household registration in certain District, 2017 to 2019. Methods: The crude morbidity and mortality rate of males and females in the whole population were calculated by using the relevant data from the certain District Cancer Registry and Report System and the Cause of Death Surveillance System. The standardized morbidity and mortality rate were calculated according to the age structure of 2000 National Demographic Census and Segi's world population, respectively. Trend in liver cancer morbidity and mortality were evaluated using percent change (PC), annual percentage change, and case-number-weighted annual percent change. Age-specific rates were used to analyze the epidemic trend of liver cancer with age. Results: The crude morbidity rate of liver cancer in the whole population (male and female) of the certain district from 2017 to 2019 were 18.86/100 000, 26.05/100 000 and 11.90/100 000 respectively, and the crude mortality rates were 21.20/100 000, 29.29/100 000 and 13.38/100 000 respectively. The crude morbidity and mortality rate of liver cancer among male showed a downward trend (PC=-16.77% and -20.15% respectively). The crude morbidity and mortality rate of liver cancer among female showed inconsistent changes; however, the crude morbidity rate showed a downward trend, and the crude mortality rate first increased and then decreased (PC=-19.42% and -0.30% respectively). Liver cancer morbidity and mortality rate in male after the age of 30 were increased with age. The two key points of accelerated growth were around the age of 65 and 75, and the peak of morbidity (130.78/100 000) and mortality (201.96/100 000) were after the age of 80. The morbidity and mortality rate were significantly lower in female than those of male aged 60; however, after the age of 65, the morbidity rate was increased rapidly and gradually approached as that of male. After the age of 80 (the peak morbidity and mortality were 104.40/100,000 and 132.87/100,000, respectively), male were about twice as high as those female aged between 75 and 79. Conclusion: Morbidity and mortality rate of liver cancer in the certain District showed an overall downward trend from 2017 to 2019, but it increased with age, and the disease burden was relatively high among the elderly population. Liver cancer mostly occurred in male, so the prevention and control of liver cancer epidemics in middle-aged and elderly should be actively monitored.目的： 分析2017-2019年某区户籍居民肝癌发病和死亡趋势。 方法： 利用某区肿瘤登记报告系统及死因监测系统中相关数据，计算全人群、男性和女性粗发病率和粗病死率，并根据2000年全国人口普查年龄结构及Segi's世界人口年龄结构分别计算各人群的中标率和世标率。利用变化百分比（percent change，PC）、年度变化百分比和经病例数加权的年度变化百分比来评价肝癌发病和死亡的变化趋势。利用年龄别率来分析肝癌随年龄增长的流行趋势。 结果： 某区2017-2019年全人群、男性和女性的肝癌粗发病率分别为18.86/10万、26.05/10万和11.90/10万，粗病死率分别为21.20/10万、29.29/10万和13.38/10万。男性肝癌粗发病率和粗病死率呈现下降趋势（PC分别为-16.77%和-20.15%），女性肝癌粗发病率和粗病死率变化不一致，粗发病率呈现下降趋势，粗病死率先升后降（PC分别为-19.42%和-0.30%）。肝癌发病和死亡随年龄增长而递增，男性30岁之后开始攀升，65岁和75岁左右为加速增长的两个关键点，80岁之后达到发病高峰（130.78/10万）和死亡高峰（201.96/10万）。女性60岁之前为零星发病，发病率和病死率显著低于男性，65岁之后迅速上升，逐渐接近于男性，80岁之后（发病高峰104.40/10万，死亡高峰132.87/10万）约为75～79岁的近2倍。 结论： 2017-2019年某区肝癌发病和死亡总体呈下降趋势，但是随年龄增长而递增，老年人群疾病负担较重；肝癌在男性中更高发，应积极加大对中老年男性肝癌流行的防控。.