[Disease burden and risk factors of chronic respiratory diseases in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019].

Objective: To analyze the prevalence and the trend of the disease burden of chronic respiratory diseases and relevant risk factors in Jiangsu province from 1990 to 2019 and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of chronic respiratory diseases. Methods: The data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD2019) were used to calculate the prevalence rate, mortality rate and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate. Software Joinpoint was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate. The population attributable fractions (PAF) were used to estimate the proportion of chronic respiratory disease caused by different risk factors. Results: In 1990 and 2019, the prevalence rates of chronic respiratory diseases were 4.83% and 5.45%. The mortality rates were 134.91/100 000 and 80.99/100 000 respectively, and the DALY rates were 2 678.52/100 000 and 1 534.31/100 000 respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate in Jiangsu showed a significant downward trend (AAPC values were -0.90%, -5.28% and -4.70% respectively, P<0.05). Tobacco use was the leading cause of chronic respiratory diseases, followed by air pollution, occupational exposure, suboptimal temperature and high BMI. Compared with 1990, the proportion of DALYs of chronic respiratory diseases attributable to tobacco use and high BMI increased in 2019. Conclusion: The overall burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Jiangsu shows a downward trend. Prevention and health education should be focused on the population with a smoking history and high BMI. At the same time, environmental management, attention to suboptimal temperature and control of occupational exposure factors should also be adopted as important means to prevent and control chronic respiratory diseases.目的： 分析1990—2019年江苏省居民慢性呼吸系统疾病流行情况、疾病负担变化趋势和危险因素，为慢性呼吸系统疾病防治提供依据。 方法： 利用2019年全球疾病负担研究（GBD2019）数据，分别计算患病率、死亡率、伤残调整寿命年（DALY）率。利用Joinpoint软件计算慢性呼吸系统疾病的标化患病率、标化死亡率、标化DALY率的年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）。运用人群归因危险百分比（PAF）估计不同危险因素导致慢性呼吸系统疾病的比例。 结果： 1990和2019年江苏省居民慢性呼吸系统疾病患病率分别为4.83%、5.45%，死亡率分别为134.91/10万、80.99/10万，DALY率分别为2 678.52/10万、1 534.31/10万。1990—2019年标化患病率、标化死亡率和标化DALY率均呈下降趋势，AAPC分别为-0.90%、-5.28%和-4.70%（P<0.05）。在慢性呼吸系统疾病危险因素的归因顺位中，烟草使用占首位，其次为空气污染、职业暴露、亚适温和高BMI。与1990年相比，2019年可归因于烟草使用和高BMI的慢性呼吸系统疾病DALY比例有所增加。 结论： 江苏省慢性呼吸系统疾病总体疾病负担呈下降趋势。对于有吸烟史以及高BMI人群应做重点防治和健康宣教，同时环境治理、注意亚适温和控制职业暴露因素也应作为防控慢性呼吸系统疾病的重要手段。.