Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Bias degrades simulation of ENSO Asymmetry due to underestimation of strong Eastern Pacific El Niños

赤道 气候学 不对称 海面温度 厄尔尼诺南方涛动 振幅 太平洋十年振荡 气候模式 地质学 环境科学 海洋学 气候变化 纬度 物理 大地测量学 量子力学
作者
Tobias Bayr,Joke F. Lübbecke,Jérôme Vialard,Mojib Latif
出处
期刊:Journal of Climate [American Meteorological Society]
卷期号:37 (23): 6167-6182
标识
DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-24-0071.1
摘要

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a considerable asymmetry in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa), as El Niño events tend to be stronger and centered further east than La Niña events. Here, we analyze ENSO asymmetry in observations and preindustrial control integrations of 32 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Observations indicate a significant link between strong eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and the ENSO amplitude and asymmetry. The large CMIP6 database confirms this strong link. Most CMIP6 models suffer from an equatorial Pacific cold SST bias. This cold tongue bias hinders the southward migration of the ITCZ toward the equator over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which is characteristic of strong EP El Niño events in observations. Therefore, many models underestimate the eastern equatorial Pacific rainfall anomalies and simulate a wind stress feedback over the western Pacific that is too weak and too far west. As a result, the cold tongue bias exerts a strong control on the climate models’ ability to generate strong EP El Niño events and therefore on the ENSO overall amplitude and asymmetry. We discuss the relevance of these results in view of a potential increase of strong EP El Niño events under global warming. Significance Statement El Niño and La Niña are asymmetric, as El Niño events tend to be stronger and further east than La Niña events. Due to an equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias with too cold SSTs, the simulation of ENSO asymmetry is degraded in many climate models participating in CMIP6. Here, we show how the cold tongue bias influences ENSO asymmetry. The cold bias hampers the simulation of strong eastern Pacific El Niños by making it more difficult for SST to exceed the threshold for deep atmospheric convection over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Recent research indicates that climate models with a realistic ENSO asymmetry agree on the projected ENSO under global warming. The results of this study suggest that reducing the cold tongue bias has the potential to enhancing the reliability of future ENSO projections.

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