Development of a Predictive Model for Carbon Dioxide Corrosion Rate and Severity Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Carbon dioxide corrosion is a pervasive issue in pipelines and the petroleum industry, posing substantial risks to equipment safety and longevity. Accurate prediction of corrosion rates and severity is essential for effective material selection and equipment maintenance. This paper begins by addressing the limitations of traditional corrosion prediction methods and explores the application of machine learning algorithms in CO2 corrosion prediction. Conventional models often fail to capture the complex interactions among multiple factors, resulting in suboptimal prediction accuracy, limited adaptability, and poor generalization. To overcome these limitations, this study systematically organized and analyzed the data, performed a correlation analysis of the data features, and examined the factors influencing corrosion. Subsequently, prediction models were developed using six algorithms: Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost, and LightGBM. The results revealed that SVM exhibited the lowest performance on both training and test sets, while RF achieved the best results with R2 values of 0.92 for the training set and 0.88 for the test set. In the classification of corrosion severity, RF, LightGBM, SVM, and KNN were utilized, with RF demonstrating superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 99% and an F1-score of 0.99. This study highlights that machine learning algorithms, particularly Random Forest, offer substantial potential for predicting and classifying CO2 corrosion. These algorithms provide innovative approaches and valuable insights for practical applications, enhancing predictive accuracy and operational efficiency in corrosion management.