Demand-Side Effects of Open Innovation: The Case of Cryptocurrency Forking

Many digital products follow an open-innovation model, wherein the open boundaries facilitate copying (forking) the codebase and creating new products, which may compete with the parents for user demand. Although a rich body of literature highlights the benefits of open source such as the availability of developers with diverse skill sets and accelerated innovation, the competition effects of forked products on the demand of their parents remain understudied. Using data from major cryptocurrencies and their forked products created between 2011 and 2021, we study how these entrants impact the demand for parent cryptocurrencies. We categorize cryptocurrencies as transaction or platform types. Transaction coins are primarily used for the exchange of goods and services, whereas platform coins offer additional capabilities such as hosting applications or third-party services. We find that parents with only transaction capabilities experience a negative impact on demand. Although popularity may shield the parents to a certain extent, the substitution effect is still dominant. However, popular coins with platform capabilities do not experience a decrease in demand when competing with forked entrants; an increase in smart contract transactions due to their compatibility with the competing forked products offsets the negative substitution effect observed for regular transactions. Our study underscores the competitive dynamics of open innovation and provides managerial insights for firms considering open models for product development. Our results highlight the importance of considering both substitution and complementarities when assessing the risks and benefits of the open-innovation model. This paper was accepted by Anindya Ghose, information systems. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.03132 .