Multi-scenario simulation and evaluation of the impacts of land use change on ecosystem service values in the Chishui River Basin of Guizhou Province, China

Changes in land-use patterns are the main driving factors of ecosystem service values (ESVs). The quantitative evaluation of ESVs is significant for the sustainable development of ecologically fragile areas. In this study, the Chishui River Basin (CRB) in China was selected as the study region, and an intensity map (IM) was used to analyze the transformation of land use/land cover (LULC). The modified equivalent coefficient value method was used to evaluate the ESVs based on the 2000, 2010, and 2020 land use datasets. The spatial and temporal distributions of ESV and its response to changes in LULC were analyzed using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistical method and Spearman's rank correlation analysis. Moreover, spatial and temporal changes in LULC and ESV over the next 30 years in the four development scenarios were simulated using the Markov-PLUS model. The following results were obtained: 1) The farmland and forestland were the dominant LULC categories, and that the LULC pattern dramatically changed in the study area; 2) the total ESV of the CRB decreased significantly from 23.21 billion yuan in 2000 to 22.29 billion yuan in 2020; and 3) the ecological conservation scenario significantly promoted the total ESV, and the town development scenario was more conducive to the urbanization process. Therefore, although the ESV of the CRB showed a decreasing to slowly increasing trend in the context of a series of ecological restoration measures, scientific ecological protection and development policies must be continuously implemented to achieve harmony between ecological service improvement and urbanization development. Our results provide important information for making land-use decisions and facilitating sustainable development in ecologically protected basins.