Using scalp EEG to predict seizure recurrence and electrical status epilepticus in children with idiopathic focal epilepsy

Purpose Some individuals with idiopathic focal epilepsy (IFE) experience recurring seizures accompanied by the evolution of electrical status epilepticus during sleep (ESES). Here, we aimed to develop a predictor for the early detection of seizure recurrence with ESES in children with IFE using resting state electroencephalogram (EEG) data. Methods The study group included 15 IFE patients who developed seizure recurrence with ESES. There were 17 children in the control group who did not experience seizure recurrence with ESES during at least 2-year follow-up. We used the degree value of the partial directed coherence (PDC) from the EEG data to predict seizure recurrence with ESES via 6 machine learning (ML) algorithms. Results Among the models, the Xgboost Classifier (XGBC) model achieved the highest specificity of 0.90, and a remarkable sensitivity and accuracy of 0.80 and 0.85, respectively. The CATC showed balanced performance with a specificity of 0.85, sensitivity of 0.73, and an accuracy of 0.80, with an AUC equal to 0.78. For both of these models, F4, Fz and T4 were the overlaps of the top 4 features. Conclusions Considering its high classification accuracy, the XGBC model is an effective and quantitative tool for predicting seizure recurrence with ESES evolution in IFE patients. We developed an ML-based tool for predicting the development of IFE using resting state EEG data. This could facilitate the diagnosis and treatment of patients with IFE.