Impact of baseline and longitudinal allostatic load changes on incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: A 7-year population-based cohort study in China

We aimed to prospectively examine the association of baseline allostatic load (AL) and longitudinal AL changes with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and elderly Chinese and evaluate the relative contribution of each physiological system of AL. Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) among adults aged 45 years or older were analyzed. Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CIs) for the association between baseline AL/longitudinal AL changes with incident CVD and all-cause mortality. Compared with adults with AL 0–1, HRs of those with baseline AL 2–3 and AL ≥ 4 were 1.24 (95 % CI: 1.06, 1.45) and 1.51 (95 % CI: 1.27, 1.80) for incident CVD, and 1.39 (95 % CI: 1.11, 1.75) and 2.02 (95 % CI: 1.60, 2.54) for all-cause mortality. Similar results were found when we treated baseline AL as a continuous variable. We also found per AL score increase during 4 years of follow-up was related to a 11 % (HR, 1.11; 95 % CI: 1.04, 1.20) and 21 % (HR, 1.21; 95 % CI: 1.10, 1.34) increase in incident CVD and all-cause mortality, respectively. The outcome of suffering from CVD was self-reported doctor-diagnosis. Both baseline AL and longitudinal increases in AL were positively associated with incident CVD and all-cause mortality in middle-aged and elderly adults. Individuals with high AL need to be dynamically monitored for CVD and pre-mature mortality prevention.