Deep learning for automatic prediction of early activation of treatment naïve non-exudative MNVs in AMD

Background: Around 30% of non-exudative macular neovascularizations(NE-MNVs) exudate within 2 years from diagnosis in patients with age-related macular degeneration(AMD).The aim of the study is to develop a deep learning classifier based on optical coherence tomography(OCT) and OCT angiography(OCTA) to identify NE-MNVs at risk of exudation. Methods: AMD patients showing OCTA and fluorescein angiography (FA) documented NE-MNV with a 2-years minimum imaging follow-up were retrospectively selected. Patients showing OCT B-scan-documented MNV exudation within the first 2 years formed the EX-GROUP while the others formed QU-GROUP.ResNet-101, Inception-ResNet-v2 and DenseNet-201 were independently trained on OCTA and OCT B-scan images. Combinations of the 6 models were evaluated with major and soft voting techniques. Results: Eighty-nine (89) eyes of 89 patients with a follow-up of 5.7 ± 1.5 years were recruited(35 EX GROUP and 54 QU GROUP). Inception-ResNet-v2 was the best performing among the 3 single convolutional neural networks(CNNs).The major voting model resulting from the association of the 3 different CNNs resulted in improvement of performance both for OCTA and OCT B-scan (both significantly higher than human graders’ performance). Soft voting model resulting from the combination of OCTA and OCT B-scan based major voting models showed a testing accuracy of 94.4%. Peripheral arcades and large vessels on OCTA enface imaging were more prevalent in QU GROUP. Conclusions: Artificial intelligence shows high performances in identifications of NE-MNVs at risk for exudation within the first 2 years of follow up, allowing better customization of follow up timing and avoiding treatment delay. Better results are obtained with the combination of OCTA and OCT B-scan image analysis.