Mathematical modeling of Escherichia coli O157:H7 growth in carrot juice influenced by Thymbra capitata essential oil, heat treatment, and storage temperature

The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model describing the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in carrot juice treated with Thymbra capitata essential oil combined with mild heat treatment and stored at different temperatures. The viable count method was used to investigate the effect of the treatment on bacterial survival, and the response surface methodology was used to develop a statistical model fitting the data. The results showed that the variance of bacterial growth is explained by storage temperature (37 %) and heat treatment (35 %), these are followed by Thymbra capitata essential oil (18 %) and their interaction (9 %). Positive multiplicative interaction was obtained for any pair of the studied treatments and cooperative effect synergy was observed over a large domain of these factors. A mathematical model was successfully developed to describe Escherichia coli O157:H7 response to the selected factors, within the study limits, and to estimate the risk of juice contamination and shelf-life. Based on our results, the use of Thymbra capitata essential oil combined with heat treatment may control Escherichia coli O157:H7 growth in carrot juice stored at low temperature.