Waning rate of immunity and duration of protective immunity against diphtheria toxoid as a function of age and number of doses: Systematic review and quantitative data analysis

Although the burden of diphtheria has declined greatly since the introduction of vaccines, sporadic outbreaks continue to be reported. WHO recommends booster doses after a primary series, but questions remain about the optimal interval between these doses. We conducted a systematic review and quantitative data analysis to quantify the duration of protective immunity after different numbers of doses. Fifteen cross-sectional seroprevalence studies provided data on geometric mean concentration (GMC). Single-year age-stratified GMCs were analyzed using a mixed-effect linear regression model with a random intercept incorporating the between-country variability. GMC was estimated to decline to 0.1 IU/ml in 2.5 years (95% CI: 0.9-4.0), 10.3 years (95% CI: 7.1-13.6), and 25.1 years (95% CI: 7.6-42.6) after receiving three, four and five doses, respectively. The results drawn from cross-sectional data collected in countries with different epidemiologies, vaccines, and schedules had several limitations. However, these analyses contribute to the discussion of optimal timing between booster doses of diphtheria toxoid-containing vaccine.