Spatiotemporal Transmission Model to Simulate an Interregional Epidemic Spreading

地理空间分析 人口 正确性 计算机科学 地理 数据科学 运筹学 地图学 工程类 社会学 人口学 程序设计语言
作者
Zitong Li,Haiping Zhang,Chen Ding,Canyu Chen,Renyu Chen,Nuozhou Shen,Huang Yi,Liyang Xiong,Guoan Tang
出处
期刊:Annals of the American Association of Geographers [Taylor & Francis]
卷期号:113 (9): 2084-2107 被引量:6
标识
DOI:10.1080/24694452.2023.2216296
摘要

Infectious disease spread is a spatiotemporal process with significant regional differences that can be affected by multiple factors, such as human mobility and manner of contact. From a geographical perspective, the simulation and analysis of an epidemic can promote an understanding of the contagion mechanism and lead to an accurate prediction of its future trends. The existing methods fail to consider the mutual feedback mechanism of heterogeneities between the interregional population interaction and the regional transmission conditions (e.g., contact probability and the effective reproduction number). This disadvantage oversimplifies the transmission process and reduces the accuracy of the simulation results. To fill this gap, a general model considering the spatiotemporal characteristics is proposed, which includes compartment modeling of population categories, flow interaction modeling of population movements, and spatial spread modeling of an infectious disease. Furthermore, the correctness of a theoretical hypothesis for modeling and prediction accuracy of this model was tested with a synthetic data set and a real-world COVID-19 data set in China, respectively. The theoretical contribution of this article was to verify that the interplay of multiple types of geospatial heterogeneities dramatically influences the spatial spread of infectious disease. This model provides an effective method for solving infectious disease simulation problems involving dynamic, complex spatiotemporal processes of geographical elements, such as optimization of lockdown strategies, analyses of the medical resource carrying capacity, and risk assessment of herd immunity from the perspective of geography. Key Words: geospatial heterogeneities, health geography, interregional population interaction, spatiotemporal analysis, transmission modeling.
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
失眠的霸完成签到,获得积分10
刚刚
ChatGPT发布了新的文献求助10
1秒前
3秒前
多发论文完成签到,获得积分20
4秒前
4秒前
5秒前
su发布了新的文献求助10
5秒前
Xw关闭了Xw文献求助
5秒前
大个应助fjm采纳,获得10
8秒前
而为发布了新的文献求助30
8秒前
机智思真发布了新的文献求助10
8秒前
木樨316完成签到,获得积分10
8秒前
11秒前
花花完成签到 ,获得积分10
13秒前
沉默的小天鹅应助耀阳采纳,获得10
13秒前
lilila666完成签到,获得积分10
13秒前
15秒前
16秒前
16秒前
lilila666发布了新的文献求助10
18秒前
艺术家脾气完成签到,获得积分10
18秒前
丘比特应助qqq采纳,获得10
20秒前
22秒前
crazy发布了新的文献求助10
23秒前
Wayne72完成签到,获得积分0
28秒前
阿飞发布了新的文献求助10
28秒前
Zoki完成签到,获得积分10
29秒前
mini发布了新的文献求助10
30秒前
31秒前
烟雨完成签到,获得积分10
33秒前
彭栋应助文献采纳,获得30
33秒前
祖国小红花完成签到,获得积分20
33秒前
fighting完成签到 ,获得积分10
34秒前
来我家喝桂花茶完成签到,获得积分10
39秒前
39秒前
852应助一方通行采纳,获得10
39秒前
40秒前
40秒前
量子星尘发布了新的文献求助10
41秒前
而为完成签到,获得积分10
41秒前
高分求助中
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
ACSM’s Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription, 12th edition 500
‘Unruly’ Children: Historical Fieldnotes and Learning Morality in a Taiwan Village (New Departures in Anthropology) 400
Indomethacinのヒトにおける経皮吸収 400
Phylogenetic study of the order Polydesmida (Myriapoda: Diplopoda) 370
基于可调谐半导体激光吸收光谱技术泄漏气体检测系统的研究 350
Robot-supported joining of reinforcement textiles with one-sided sewing heads 320
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3989378
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3531442
关于积分的说明 11254002
捐赠科研通 3270126
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1804887
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 882087
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 809173