Long-Term Forecast of Sierra Leone’s Energy Supply and Demand (2019–2040): A LEAP Model Application for Sustainable Power Generation System

Sierra Leone is suffering from a persistent electricity gap that has crippled its economic growth and prevented it from attaining several health and education development goals. This persistent electricity gap has generated significant interest in tackling the country’s long-lasting energy deficiency. Providing electricity in a reliable, sustainable, and cost-effective manner in Sierra Leone requires adopting robust integrated energy planning and appropriate technologies. Despite various interventions by the government, a balance between electricity demand and supply has yet to be achieved. Using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), this work assesses Sierra Leone’s energy supply and demand for 2019–2040. We developed three case scenarios (Base, Middle, and High) based on forecasted demand, resource potential, techno-economic parameters, and CO2 emissions. The Base case considers the electricity sector as business as usual, the Middle case examines the electricity sector reform roadmap and the prospect of integrating renewable energy into the power system, and the High case examines the sustainable development of the power generation system considering the electricity sector roadmap. As part of this study, we analyze potential alternatives to conventional electricity generation systems aimed at providing electricity in a sustainable, reliable, and affordable manner, including the use of renewable energy sources and technologies with less CO2 emissions. Model results estimate an increase in electricity demand of 1812.5 GWh, 1936 GWh, and 2635.8 GWh for Base, Middle, and High cases respectively. Also, there is a reduction in production, fuel cost, and CO2 emission in the High case to the Base case by 67.15%, 35.79%, and 51.8%, respectively. This paper concludes with recommendations devised from the study results for the power system of Sierra Leone.