A Liver Stiffness–Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background & Aims

The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness–based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs).

Methods

MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness–based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85–0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87–0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B–related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%–0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%–4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts.

Conclusions

The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning–based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.