Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

预期寿命疾病负担医学疾病环境卫生老年学人口学人口内科学社会学

作者

Dana Bryazka,Marissa B Reitsma,Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate,Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied,Atef Abdelkader,Arash Abdollahi,Meriem Abdoun,Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader,Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zúñiga,E S Abhilash,Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun,Olumide Abiodun,Richard Gyan Aboagye,Lucas Guimarães Abreu,Dariush Abtahi,Hasan Abualruz,Bilyaminu Abubakar,Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh,Salahdein Aburuz,Ahmed Abu‐Zaid,Mesafint Molla Adane,Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi,Oyelola A. Adegboye,Victor Adekanmbi,Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi,Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani,Leticia Akua Adzigbli,Siamak Afaghi,Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi,Muhammad U. Afzal,Saira Afzal,Antonella Agodi,Williams Agyemang‐Duah,Bright Opoku Ahinkorah,Austin J Ahlstrom,Aqeel Ahmad,Danish Ahmad,Muayyad Ahmad,Sajjad Ahmad,Shahzaib Ahmad,Ali Ahmadi,Anisuddin Ahmed,Ayman Ahmed,Ahmed I Hasaballah,Ahmed I Hasaballah,Safoora Ahmed,Marjan Ajami,Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif,Ema Akter,Salah Al Awaidy,Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan,Yazan A. Al‐Ajlouni,Ziyad Al‐Aly,Khurshid Alam,Zufishan Alam,Wafa Ali Aldhaleei,Abdelazeem M. Algammal,Adel Al‐Gheethi,Khalid F. AlHabib,Fadwa Alhalaiqa,Mohammed Khaled Al‐Hanawi,Abid Ali,Mohammed Usman Ali,Rafat Ali,Syed Shujait Ali,Waad Ali,Sheikh Mohammad Alif,Syed Mohamed Aljunid,François Alla,Peter Allebeck,Osamah Abdullah El-Rubaidi,Sabah Al-Marwani,Sadeq Ali Al‐Maweri,Mahmoud A. Alomari,Jaber S. Alqahtani,Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi,Rajaa Al‐Raddadi,Sahel Majed Alrousan,Saqr Alsakarneh,Najim Z. Alshahrani,Zaid Altaany,Awais Altaf,Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán,Mohammad Alwardat,Yaser Mohammed Al‐Worafi,Hany Aly,Safwat Aly,Mohammad S. Alyahya,Karem H. Alzoubi,Walid Al-Zyoud,Reza Amani,Tarek Tawfik Amin,Sohrab Amiri,Hubert Amu,Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul,Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa,Tanu Anand,Deanna Anderlini,David Anderson,Jason A Anderson,Cătălina Liliana Andrei,Tudorel Andrei,Mohammed T Ansari,Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa,Sara Anvari,Sumadi Lukman Anwar,Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor,Jalal Arabloo,Elshaimaa A Arafa,Aleksandr Y. Aravkin,Demelash Areda,Brhane Berhe,Olatunde Aremu,Anton A Artamonov,Akeza Awealom Asgedom,Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi,Mubarek Yesse,Tahira Ashraf,Thomas Astell‐Burt,Seyyed Shamsadin Athari,Prince Atorkey,Alok Atreya,Avinash Aujayeb,Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe,Getinet Ayano,Setognal Birara Aychiluhm,Sina Azadnajafabad,Ahmed Y. Azzam,Giridhara R. Babu,Pegah Bahrami Taqanaki,Saeed Bahramian,Ruhai Bai,Shankar M Bakkannavar,Senthilkumar Balakrishnan,Kiran Bam,Maciej Banach,Soham Bandyopadhyay,Mehmet Fırat Baran,Martina Barchitta,Mainak Bardhan,Suzanne Barker‐Collo,Amadou Barrow,Hameed Akande Bashiru,Afisu Basiru,Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan,Sanjay Basu,Saurav Basu,Kavita Batra,Vahid Yazdi‐Feyzabadi,Amir Hossein Behnoush,Sue Anne Bell,Luı́s Belo,Alice A. Beneke,Derrick Bennett,Isabela M. Benseñor,Azizullah Beran,Amiel Nazer C. Bermudez,Habtamu B. Beyene,Devidas S. Bhagat,Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula,Neeraj Bhala,Nikha Bhardwaj,Pankaj Bhardwaj,Sonu Bhaskar,Ajay Nagesh Bhat,Natalia V. Bhattacharjee,Priyadarshini Bhattacharjee,Jasvinder Singh Bhatti,Cem Bilgin,Atanu Biswas,Bijit Biswas,Micheal Kofi Boachie,Eyob Ketema Bogale,Berrak Bora Başara,Hamed Borhany,Samuel Adolf Bosoka,Souad Bouaoud,Edward J. Boyko,Derrick Bennett,André R. Brunoni,Raffaele Bugiardini,Norma B. Bulamu,Yasser Bustanji,Zahid A Butt,Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos,Daniela Călina,Chao Cao,Fan Cao,Angelo Capodici,Rosario Cárdenas,Giulia Carreras,João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia,Maria Sofia Cattaruzza,Arthur Caye,Luca Cegolon,Edina Cenko,Sonia Cerrai,Sandip Chakraborty,Rama Mohan Chandika,Eeshwar K. Chandrasekar,Vijay Kumar Chattu,Anis Ahmad Chaudhary,Akhilanand Chaurasia,An‐Tian Chen,Guangjin Chen,Haowei Chen,Mengxuan Chen,Simiao Chen,Kent Jason G. Cheng,Sadaf Sharfaei,Fatemeh Chichagi,Ritesh Chimoriya,Jesús L. Chirinos,Abdulaal Chitheer,Bryan Chong,Chean Lin Chong,Yuen Yu Chong,Hitesh Chopra,Sonali G Choudhari,Dinh‐Toi Chu,Isaac Sunday Chukwu,Sheng‐Chia Chung,Muhammad Chutiyami,João Conde,Alexandru Corlăteanu,Benjamin C Cowie,Natália Martins,Alanna Gomes da Silva,Omid Dadras,Siyu Dai,Xiaochen Dai,Giovanni Damiani,Rakhi Dandona,Rakhi Dandona,Samuel D Darcho,Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani,Saswati Das,Nihar Ranjan Dash,Kairat Davletov,Aklilu Tamire Debele,Shayom Debopadhaya,Daniel Demant,Hardik Dineshbhai Desai,Devananda Devegowda,Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan,Arkadeep Dhali,Amol S. Dhane,Vishal Dhulipala,Thanh Chi,Milad Dodangeh,Phidelia Theresa Doegah,Sushil Dohare,Deepa Dongarwar,Mario D’Oria,Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi,Rajkumar Doshi,Robert Kokou Dowou,Ashel Chelsea Dsouza,Haneil Larson Dsouza,Viola Savy Dsouza,Bruce Bartholow Duncan,André Rodrigues Durães,Arkadiusz Dziedzic,Abdel Rahman E’mar,Alireza Ebrahimi,Negar Ebrahimi,Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan,David Edvardsson,Kristina Edvardsson,Ferry Efendi,Diyan Ermawan Effendi,Foolad Eghbali,Michael Ekholuenetale,Rabie Adel El Arab,Ibrahim Farahat El Bayoumy,Iman El Sayed,Iffat Elbarazi,Michael Ekholuenetale,Waseem El‐Huneidi,Mohamed A. Elmonem,Gihan ELNahas,Ibrahim Elsohaby,Chadi Eltaha,Mohd. Elmagzoub Eltahir,Mehdi Emamverdi,Theophilus I. Emeto,Daniel Asfaw Erku,Farshid Etaee,Elochukwu Fortune Ezenwankwo,Natalia Fabin,Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe,Omotayo Francis Fagbule,Shahriar Faghani,Ayesha Fahim,Ildar Fakhradiyev,Luca Falzone,Umar Farooque,Ali Fatehizadeh,Zareen Fatima,Nelsensius Klau Fauk,Timur Fazylov,Alireza Feizkhah,Ginenus Fekadu,Xiaoqi Feng,Pietro Ferrara,Nuno Ferreira,Bikila Regassa Feyisa,Filippos T Filippidis,Florian Fischer,Luísa Sório Flor,Kyle J Foreman,Célia F. Rodrigues,Matteo Foschi,G Sridevi,Péter Gaál,Muktar A. Gadanya,Abhay Gaidhane,Márió Gajdács,Silvano Gallus,Aravind P. Gandhi,Balasankar Ganesan,Prem Gautam,Rupesh K. Gautam,Miglas W Gebregergis,Mesfin Gebrehiwot,Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel,Lemma Getacher,Fataneh Ghadirian,Ramy Mohamed Ghazy,Ali Gholamrezanezhad,Mahsa Ghorbani,Sherief Ghozy,Artyom Gil,Gabriela Gil,E. V. Gnedovskaya,Sonu Goel,Salime Goharinezhad,Mohamad Goldust,Mahaveer Golechha,Pouya Goleij,Davide Golinelli,Giuseppe Gorini,Mahdi Gouravani,Ayman Grada,Michal Grivna,Shekhar Grover,Shi‐Yang Guan,Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari,Avirup Guha,Stefano Guicciardi,Snigdha Gulati,Damitha Asanga Gunawardane,Sasidhar Gunturu,Zhifeng Guo,Anish Gupta,Bhawna Gupta,Ishita Gupta,Mohak Gupta,Parvaiz A Koul,Mesay Dechasa,Veer Bala Gupta,Vipin Gupta,Sapna Gupta,Mostafa Hadei,Najah R Hadi,Ali H. Ali,Esam Halboub,Nadia Μ. Hamdy,Samer Hamidi,Ahmad Hammoud,Graeme J. Hankey,Arief Hargono,Kalkidan Hassen Abate,Ahmed I Hasaballah,Faizul Hasan,Md. Kamrul Hasan,Md Saquib Hasnain,Amr Hassan,Ikrama Hassan,Hassan Haghparast‐Bidgoli,Simon I Hay,Behzad Heibati,Mohammad Eghbal Heidari,Mehdi Hemmati,Delia Hendrie,Claudiu Herţeliu,Demisu Zenbaba,Kamal Hezam,Yuta Hiraike,Nguyen Quoc Hoan,Priya Rathi,Nobuyuki Horita,Md Mahbub Hossain,Sahadat Hossain,Hassan Hosseinzadeh,Sorin Hostiuc,Sorin Hostiuc,Junjie Huang,Ayesha Humayun,Javid Hussain,Bing‐Fang Hwang,Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye,Nayu Ikeda,Adalia Ikiroma,Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye,Irena Ilić,Milena Ilić,Mustapha Immurana,Leeberk Raja Inbaraj,Muhammad Iqhrammullah,Lalu Muhammad Irham,Md. Rabiul Islam,Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam,Farhad Islami,Gaetano Isola,Ramaiah Itumalla,Masao Iwagami,Mahalaxmi Iyer,J Vinothini,Jalil Jaafari,Louis Jacob,Abdollah Jafarzadeh,Khushleen Jaggi,Nader Jahanmehr,Akhil Jain,Nityanand Jain,Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun,Sanobar Jaka,Mihajlo Jakovljević,Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh,Elham Jamshidi,Manthan D Janodia,Talha Jawaid,Sathish Kumar Jayapal,Shubha Jayaram,Ruwan Duminda Jayasinghe,Rime Jebai,Sun Ha Jee,Bijay Mukesh Jeswani,Heng Bo Jiang,Mohammad Jokar,Joanne Katz,Tamás Joó,Nitin Joseph,Charity Ehimwenma Joshua,Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak,Mikk Jürisson,K Vaishali,Ali Kabir,Zubair Kabir,Vidya Kadashetti,Sivesh K. Kamarajah,Mona Kanaan,Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi,Surya Kant,Rami S. Kantar,Dimitrios Patoulias,Ibraheem M. Karaye,Salah Eddin Karimi,Yeganeh Karimi,Arman Karimi Behnagh,Samad Karkhah,Prahlad Karki,Faizan Kashoo,Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi,Harkiran Kaur,Navjot Kaur,Sina Kazemian,Tahseen Kazmi,Peter Njenga Keiyoro,Emmanuelle Kesse‐Guyot,Yousef Saleh Khader,Himanshu Khajuria,Amirmohammad Khalaji,Alireza Khalilian,Ajmal Khan,Maseer Khan,Atiqur Rahman Khan,Moien AB Khan,Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi,Khaled Khatab,Haitham Khatatbeh,Moawiah Khatatbeh,Amir M Khater,Abdallah Alzoubi,Manoj Khokhar,Moein Khormali,Atulya Aman Khosla,Sepehr Khosravi,Kwanghyun Kim,Min Seo Kim,Yun Jin Kim,Adnan Kısa,Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula,Somayeh Komaki,GN Chandu,Miikka Korja,Oleksii Korzh,Ai Koyanagi,Karel Kostev,Kewal Krishan,Barthélémy Kuate Defo,Mohammed Kuddus,Omar Kujan,Mukhtar Kulimbet,Prashant Vats,G Anil Kumar,Nithin Kumar,Pallab K. Maulik,Vijay Kumar Chattu,Amartya Kundu,Satyajit Kundu,Setor K. Kunutsor,Om Kurmi,Dian Kusuma,Frank Kyei-Arthur,Ville Kytö,Carlo La Vecchia,Kewal Krishan,Daphne Teck Ching Lai,Hanpeng Lai,Ratilal Lalloo,Tea Lallukka,Zahra Esfahani,Savita Lasrado,Jerrald Lau,Paolo Lauriola,Thao T. Le,Janet L Leasher,Munjae Lee,Le Huu Nhat Minh,Wei‐Chen Lee,Yo Han Lee,Elvynna Leong,Temesgen Leka Lerango,An Li,Wei Li,Virendra S Ligade,Stephen S Lim,Jialing Lin,Paulina A Lindstedt,Gang Liu,Erand Llanaj,José Francisco López‐Gil,Paulo A. Lotufo,Giancarlo Lucchetti,Alessandra Lugo,Jay B. Lusk,Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin,Zheng Feei,Monika Machoy,Farzan Madadizadeh,Elham Mahmoudi,Abdelrahman M. Makram,Omar Mohamed Makram,Kashish Malhotra,Ahmad Azam Malik,Déborah Carvalho Malta,Abdullah Al Mamun,Pejman Mansouri,Mohammad Alì Mansournia,Emmanuel Kwaku Manu,Hamid Reza Marateb,José Martı́nez-Raga,Miquel Martorell,Roy Rillera Marzo,Yasith Mathangasinghe,Elezebeth Mathews,Medha Mathur,Navgeet Mathur,Rita Mattiello,Roy Rillera Marzo,Martin McKee,Enkeleint A. Mechili,Ravi Mehrotra,Tesfahun Mekene Meto,Birye Dessalegn Mekonnen,Hadush Negash,Walter Mendoza,Ritesh G. Menezes,Sultan Ayoub Meo,Atte Meretoja,Tuomo J Meretoja,Tomislav Meštrović,Caine C. A. Meyers,Irmina Maria Michałek,Ted R. Miller,Giuseppe Minervini,Mojgan Mirghafourvand‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬,Erkin М Мirrakhimov,Vinaytosh Mishra,Sanjeev Misra,Rekha Thapar,Ahmed Ismail Mohamed,Jama Mohamed,Mouhand Mohamed,Nouh Saad Mohamed,Ameen Mosa Mohammad,Sakineh Mohammad‐Alizadeh‐Charandabi,Iraj Mohammadzadeh,Hussen Mohammed,Shafiu Mohammed,Syam Mohan,Ali H. Mokdad,Hossein Molavi Vardanjani,Sabrina Molinaro,Shaher Momani,Himel Mondal,Ute Mons,AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf,Maryam Moradi,Rafael Silveira Moreira,Negar Morovatdar,Shane D. Morrison,Vincent Mougin,George Duke Mukoro,Francesk Mulita,Erin C Mullany,Malaisamy Muniyandi,Yanjinlkham Munkhsaikhan,Efrén Murillo‐Zamora,Christopher J L Murray,Woojae Myung,Pirouz Naghavi,Ganesh R. Naik,Soroush Najdaghi,Hastyar Hama Rashid Najmuldeen,Luigi Naldi,Gopal Nambi,Vinay Nangia,Jobert Richie Nansseu,Shumaila Nargus,Gustavo G. Nascimento,Abdulqadir J. Nashwan,Zuhair S. Natto,Javaid Nauman,Muhammad Naveed,Nawsherwan Nawsherwan,Biswa Prakash Nayak,Vinod C Nayak,Athare Nazri-Panjaki,Sabina O. Nduaguba,Ruxandra Irina Negoi,Reza Nejad Shahrokh Abadi,Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi,Konrad Pesudovs,Subas Neupane,Marie Ng,Josephine W Ngunjiri,Đức Hinh Nguyễn,Hau Thi Hien Nguyen,Hien Nguyen,Phat Tuan Nguyen,Phuong The Nguyen,Văn Thành Nguyễn,Yeshambel T. Nigatu,Τaxiarchis Κonstantinos Νikolouzakis,Ali Nikoobar,Nasrin Nikravangolsefid,Vikram Niranjan,Chukwudi A Nnaji,Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi,Efaq Ali Noman,Shuhei Nomura,Sàdaf Noor,Mamoona Noreen,Majid Nozari,Fred Nugen,Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam,Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam,Dang Nguyen,Kehinde Obamiro,Ismail Ayoade Odetokun,Daniel Bogale,Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya,Michael Safo Oduro,James Odhiambo Oguta,In‐Hwan Oh,Hassan Okati–Aliabad,Sylvester Reuben Okeke,Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle,Osaretin Christabel Okonji,Andrew T Olagunju,Omotola O Olasupo,Matthew Idowu Olatubi,Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira,Abdulhakeem Abayomi Olorukooba,Goran Latif Omer,Sok King Ong,Abdulahi Opejin Opejin,Michał Ordak,Verner N. Orish,Esteban Ortiz‐Prado,Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu,Stanislav S Otstavnov,Amel Ouyahia,Mahesh Padukudru P A,Alicia Padrón‐Monedero,Jagadish Rao Padubidri,Anton Pak,Raúl Felipe Palma-Álvarez,Hai‐Feng Pan,Demosthenes B. Panagiotakos,Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas,Anamika Pandey,Leonidas Panos,Ioannis Pantazopoulos,Anca Pantea Stoian,Paraskevi Papadopoulou,Shahina Pardhan,Pragyan Paramita Parija,Romil Parikh,Eun‐Kee Park,Seoyeon Park,Nicholas Parsons,Roberto Passera,Jay Patel,Sangram Kishor Patel,Shankargouda Patil,Hridoy Patwary,Shrikant Pawar,Prince Peprah,Gavin Pereira,Perianayagam Arokiasamy,Richard G. Pestell,Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha,Tom Pham,Armelle Philip,Michael Phillips,Dimitri Poddighe,Roman Topór-Mądry,Ramesh Poluru,Fabio Porru,Manu Raj,Jalandhar Pradhan,Pranil Man Singh Pradhan,Manya Prasad,Akila Prashant,Elton Junio Sady Prates,Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi,Bharathi Purohit,Jagadeesh Puvvula,Ibrahim Qattea,Venkatraman Radhakrishnan,Catalina Raggi,Pankaja Raghav,Fakher Rahim,Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar,Md. Mosfequr Rahman,Mosiur Rahman,Muhammad Aziz Rahman,Shayan Rahmani,Mohammad Rahmanian,Nazanin Rahmanian,Vinoth Rajendran,Pushp Lata Rajpoot,Prashant Rajput,Pradhum Ram,Mahmoud M. Ramadan,Majed Ramadan,Kritika Rana,Rishabh Kumar Rana,Chhabi Lal Ranabhat,Sowmya J Rao,Sina Rashedi,Ahmed Mustafa Rashid,Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula,Ashkan Rasouli-Saravani,Devarajan Rathish,Santosh Kumar Rauniyar,Ilari Rautalin,Nakul Ravikumar,Salman Rawaf,Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy,Elrashdy M. Redwan,Negar Rezaei,Mohsen Rezaeian,Abanoub Riad,Mónica Rodrigues,Thales Philipe Rodrigues da Silva,Jefferson Antonio Buendía,Amir Hossein Behnoush,Kevin T. Root,Gholamreza Roshandel,Allen G. Ross,Himanshu Sekhar Rout,Bedanta Roy,Nitai Roy,Simanta Roy,Guilherme de Andrade Ruela,Sowmya Srinivas,Cameron Sabet,Siamak Sabour,Kabir P. Sadarangani,Basema Saddik,Hassan Okati–Aliabad,Mohammad‐Reza Ghasemi,Basema Saddik,Pooya Saeedi,Sher Zaman Safi,Dominic Sagoe,Fatemeh Saheb Sharif‐Askari,Amirhossein Sahebkar,Madhur Verma,Md Refat Uz Zaman Sajib,Mirza Rizwan Sajid,Luciane Bresciani Salaroli,Mohamed A. Saleh,Mona A. Salem,Dauda Salihu,Yoseph Leonardo Samodra,Abdallah M Samy,Juan Sanabria,Milena M Santric-Milicevic,Bruno Piassi Sâo José,Huma Qureshi,Made Ary Sarasmita,Abhishek Anil,Babak Saravi,Yaser Sarikhani,Tanmay Sarkar,Gargi S. Sarode,Sachin C. Sarode,Benn Sartorius,Brijesh Sathian,Anudeep Sathyanarayan,Maheswar Satpathy,Monika Sawhney,Mete Şaylan,Benedikt M. Schaarschmidt,Michael P. Schaub,Markus P. Schlaich,María Inês Schmidt,Art Schuermans,Austin E Schumacher,Siddharthan Selvaraj,Mohammad H. Semreen,Subramanian Senthilkumaran,Sadaf G Sepanlou,Yashendra Sethi,Seyed Arsalan Seyedi,Allen Seylani,Mahan Shafie,Arman Shafiee,Ataollah Shahbandi,Samiah Shahid,Hamid R. Shahsavari,Moyad Shahwan,Abdulqadir J. Nashwan,Masood Ali Shaikh,Ali Shalash,Muhammad Aaqib Shamim,Anas Shamsi,Alfiya Shamsutdinova,Mohd Shanawaz,Abhijit Chakraborty,Mohammed Shannawaz,Medha Sharath,Amin Sharifan,Manoj Sharma,Ujjawal Sharma,Vishal Sharma,Aziz Eftekhari,Ali Sheikhy,Mahabalesh Shetty,Pavanchand H Shetty,Premalatha K Shetty,Desalegn Shiferaw,Tariku Shimels,Rahman Shiri,Aminu Shittu,Ivy Shiue,Velizar Shivarov,Seyed Afshin Shorofi,Sunil Shrestha,Emmanuel Edwar Siddig,João Pedro Silva,Abhinav Singh,Baljinder Singh,Harmanjit Singh,Ambrish Singh,Paramdeep Singh,Puneetpal Singh,Surjit Singh,Virendra Singh,Freddy Sitas,Amanda Smith,Matiwos Soboka,Ranjan Solanki,Marco Solmi,Soroush Soraneh,Joan B. Soriano,Ireneous N Soyiri,Μichael Spartalis,Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy,Panagiotis Stachteas,Dan J. Stein,Paschalis Steiropoulos,Aleksandar Stevanović,Kurt Straíf,Muhammad Suleman,Gerhard Sulo,Zhong Sun,Vinay Suresh,Chandan Kumar Swain,Łukasz Szarpak,Sree Sudha Tanguturi Yella,Payam Tabaee Damavandi,Ozra Tabatabaei‐Malazy,Seyed‐Amir Tabatabaeizadeh,Celine Tabche,Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla,Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla,Jabeen Taiba,Iman M. Talaat,Ashis Talukder,Mircea Tampa,Jacques L. Tamuzi,Ker‐Kan Tan,Minale Tareke,Ingan Ukur Tarigan,Mojtaba Teimoori,Mohamad‐Hani Temsah,Reem Temsah,Masayuki Teramoto,Dufera Rikitu Terefa,Pugazhenthan Thangaraju,Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan,Rekha Thapar,Rasiah Thayakaran,Nikhil Kenny Thomas,Mohammad Tabish,Krishna Kant Tiwari,Roman Topór-Mądry,Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone,Khaled Trabelsi,Alvin Tran,Ngoc Ha Tran,Thang Tran,Nguyen Tran Minh Duc,Indang Trihandini,Jaya Prasad Tripathy,Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen,Evangelia Eirini Tsermpini,Abdul Rohim Tualeka,Aniefiok John Udoakang,Arit Udoh,Atta Ullah,Saeed Ullah,Muhammad Umair,Brigid Unim,Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan,Jibrin Sammani Usman,Sanaz Vahdati,Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan,Jef Van den Eynde,Constantine Vardavas,Tommi Vasankari,Siavash Vaziri,Balachandar Vellingiri,Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian,Moonis Mirza,Paul J. Villeneuve,Manish Vinayak,Francesco Saverio Violante,Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov,Simona Ruxandra Volovăț,Abdul Wadood,Yasir Waheed,Mandaras Tariku,Shu Wang,Yanzhong Wang,Muhammad Waqas,Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe,Peter Willeit,Marcin W. Wojewodzic,Asrat Arja,Tewodros Eshete,Hong Xiao,Suowen Xu,Mukesh Yadav,Kazumasa Yamagishi,Danting Yang,Lin Yang,Yuichiro Yano,Amir Yarahmadi,Renjulal Yesodharan,Saber Yezli,Xinglin Yi,Vahit Yiğit,Dehui Yin,Dong Keon Yon,Naohiro Yonemoto,Seok‐Jun Yoon,Chuanhua Yu,Chun-Wei Yuan,Fathiah Zakham,Mohammed Zeariya,Haijun Zhang,Jianrong Zhang,Liqun Zhang,Claire Chenwen Zhong,Shangcheng Zhou,Bin Zhu,Magdalena Zielińska,Ghazal Zoghi,Sa’ed H. Zyoud,Stein Emil Vollset,Emmanuela Gakidou

出处

期刊：The Lancet. Public health [Elsevier]
日期：2024-10-01 卷期号：9 (10): e729-e744

链接

doi.org nih.govdoi.org

标识

DOI：10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00166-x

摘要

Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies.

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Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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