County-Level Land Use Carbon Emissions in China: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Impact Factors

Counties play a foundational role in China's economic progress and the governance of society. Studying land use carbon emissions (LUCE) at the county level is crucial for meeting China's dual carbon targets, which facilitate the decomposition of national emission reduction targets, thereby enabling more refined management and control and enhancing the precision and effectiveness of local-level emission reduction measures. However, prior research into LUCE has mainly concentrated on national and provincial levels. In this study, we calculated the LUCE of China's counties using data for nighttime light, land use, and energy consumption. Based on this foundation, we studied the spatiotemporal patterns and impact factors of LUCE in Chinese counties from 2000 to 2020. The research findings were as follows: (1) LUCE continued to increase over the study period, and its center of gravity (CGY) continued to move to the northwest. (2) There was a positive spatial autocorrelation of LUCE with an obvious spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration. (3) LUCE's local spatial pattern remained stable, with strong spatial integration and dependence, and its spatial correlation was relatively stable, with obvious path-locking characteristics. (4) LUCE was primarily influenced by GDP and carbon intensity. The study's findings have implications for China's carbon reduction strategy.