Trade-war Tariffs and Supply Chain Trade

Abstract Although Chinese exports to the United States hit an all-time high in 2022, it would be incorrect to conclude that the U.S.–China trade war had no effects on trade. By exploiting fine product-level information on trade war tariffs, this paper demonstrates how the trade war diminished China's exports to the United States in tariff-impeded products, while expanding opportunities for exports from other countries in a fashion that had some systematic characteristics. First, the impact of the trade war tariffs was not immediate, as trade responses took place with a lag. Second, the responses to trade-war tariffs were heterogenous across countries and regions, with finer distinctions by product categories. Finally, trade that could be viewed as highly tied to global value chains (GVCs), such as trade in information and communication technology products, exhibited stronger reactions to the imposition of trade-war tariffs. These responses, and their implications for the organization of global supply chains, are discussed considering current trade concerns.