Degradation trajectory prediction of lithium‐ion batteries based on charging‐discharging health features extraction and integrated data‐driven models

Abstract As one of the key technologies in battery management system, accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is critical to guarantee the reliability and safety for electrical equipment. However, the generalization and robustness of a single method are limited. A novel fusion data‐driven RUL prediction method CSSA‐ELM‐LSSVR based on charging‐discharging health features extraction is proposed in this paper, which fusions chaotic sparrow search algorithm (CSSA), extreme learning machine (ELM), and least squares support vector regression (LSSVR). First, four health indicators (HIs) are extracted from the charging‐discharging process, which can reflect the battery degradation phenomenon from multiple perspectives. Then, pearson correlation coefficient is used to numerically analyze the correlation between HIs and battery aging capacities. Second, the extracted HIs are used as the inputs for ELM and LSSVR to predict the degradation trend of battery, where CSSA is used for hyperparameters optimization in ELM. Finally, considering that CSSA‐ELM can capture the general trend of degradation curves, while LSSVR can trace the detail changes, a fusion framework based on CSSA‐ELM and LSSVR is proposed for RUL prediction. Two weighting schemes, namely precision‐based weighting (PW) and random forest regressor‐based weighting (RFRW) are put forward to fix the weights of CSSA‐ELM and LSSVR algorithms. Two publicly available datasets from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and MIT are adopted to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results indicate that the proposed method with any weighting scheme has an overall superior prediction performance for different kinds of batteries compared with CSSA‐ELM, LSSVR, convolution neural network and long short term memory. Moreover, the RFRW scheme has better overall performance. Specifically, the maximum root mean square error of the predicted method is 2.5126%, the mean absolute percentage error is 12.9167%, the mean absolute error is 1.8376%, the predicted RUL errors are within one cycle, and the determination coefficient is above 0.97.