CT-Based AI model for predicting therapeutic outcomes in ureteral stones after single extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy through a cohort study

Objectives: Exploring the efficacy of an artificial intelligence (AI) model derived from the analysis of computed tomography (CT) images to precisely forecast the therapeutic outcomes of singular-session extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in the management of ureteral stones. Methods: A total of 317 patients diagnosed clinically with ureteral stones were included in this investigation. Unenhanced CT was administered to the participants within the initial fortnight preceding the inaugural ESWL. The internal cohort consisted of 250 individuals from a local healthcare facility, whereas the external cohort comprised 67 participants from another local medical institution. The proposed framework comprises three main components: an automated semantic segmentation model developed using 3D U-Net, a feature extractor that integrates radiomics and autoencoder techniques, and an ESWL efficacy prediction model trained with various machine learning algorithms. All participants underwent thorough postoperative follow-up examinations 4 weeks hence. The efficacy of ESWL was defined by the absence of stones or residual fragments measuring ≤2 mm in KUB X-ray assessments. Model stability and generalizability were judiciously validated through a fivefold cross-validation approach and a multicenter external test strategy. Moreover, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values for individual features were computed to elucidate the nuanced contributions of each feature to the model’s decision-making process. Results: The semantic segmentation model the authors constructed exhibited an average Dice coefficient of 0.88±0.08 on the external testing set. ESWL classifiers built using Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), XGBoost (XB), and CatBoost (CB) achieved AUROC values of 0.78, 0.84, 0.85, and 0.90, respectively, on the internal validation set. For the external testing set, SVM, RF, XB, and CB predicted ESWL with AUROC values of 0.68, 0.79, 0.80, and 0.83, respectively, with the last one being the optimal algorithm. The radiomics features and auto-encoder features made significant contributions to the decision-making process of the classification model. Conclusions: This investigation unmistakably underscores the remarkable predictive prowess exhibited by a scrupulously crafted AI model using CT images to precisely anticipate the therapeutic results of a singular session of ESWL for ureteral stones.