Impact of electric vehicle emissions in the Brazilian scenario of energy transition and use of bioethanol

The transport sector stands out on the world stage due to its significant share of greenhouse gas emissions, which currently equate to 25% of global emissions. In the global context of energy transition, the electrification of mobility is shown as one of the alternatives to mitigate the impacts of global warming. In Brazil, the conjuncture is of extensive use of renewable energy sources, in which bioethanol accounts for about 35% of the primary source in flex-fuel vehicles and the electricity generation matrix comprises about 83% of renewable sources. This study aims to evaluate the global warming potential (GWP) resulting from the insertion of electric vehicles in the long term (2023–2050), in scenarios of the Brazilian light vehicle fleet, considering the transition of the electric generation matrix and the use of bioethanol. In this sense, statistical methodologies applied to historical data series and regression algorithms were used to estimate the fleet. This is in addition to the life cycle assessment approach applied to the manufacture and use of vehicles, and also fuel production in order to estimate the global warming potential. The results of the comparative evaluation showed that the ICE and HEV vehicles fueled by bioethanol had the lowest emissions per kilometer driven, compared to purely electric vehicles. In the long term, the scenario with a greater share of bioethanol proved to be more favorable for reducing annual emissions, presenting annual emissions of 69 Mt CO2eq/year in 2050 compared to 81 Mt CO2eq/year in 2020. The results of this study will provide fundamental information for planning to mitigate the environmental impacts of the transportation sector.