[Risk assessment of Cronobacter sakazakii in infant formula powder].

Objective: To assess the risk of foodborne diseases caused by Cronobacter sakazakii in infant formula powder from retail to feeding and provide formulate suggestions for safe feeding of infants at home. Methods: This study used the special monitoring and risk monitoring data of infant formula powder in Heilongjiang Province and combined data at home and abroad. The @RISK software was used to evaluate the disease risk caused by Cronobacter sakazakii in the process of infant formula powder from retail to feeding. Results: According to the results of this quantitative risk assessment, the risk of foodborne diseases caused by Cronobacter sakazakii at the current consumption pattern in Heilongjiang Province was 5.158×10-5 persons/million (40.0 ℃ and 50.0 ℃), 1.072×10-7 persons/million (60.0 ℃), 5.544×10-14 persons/million (70.0 ℃). When the feeding time of infant formula powder was adjusted to 0-2 h and 2-3 h respectively, the above prediction results did not change. When it was adjusted to 3-4 h, the risk increased. If it was adjusted to 4-24 h, the number of Cronobactersakazakii increased by 14-24 orders of magnitude at room temperature. If the initial pollution concentration (after flushing) was adjusted to 1 MPN/ml, the average disease risk per meal was 805.7 persons/million (40.0 ℃ and 50.0 ℃), 1.7 persons/million (60.0 ℃) and 9.1 × 10-7 persons/million (70.0 ℃). The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the water temperature (70.0 ℃), initial pollution concentration, room storage time and temperature were important factors of risk. Conclusion: Controlling the contamination level of Cronobactersakazakii in infant formula powder, controlling the feeding time within 3 h, storing in refrigerator and mixing with water with temperature not lower than 70.0 ℃ are effective measures to prevent infants from eating infant formula powder infected by Cronobacter sakazakii.目的： 评估从零售到喂养过程婴儿配方粉中克罗诺杆菌引起的食源性疾病风险，并根据风险评估结果制定婴儿家庭安全喂养建议。 方法： 利用黑龙江省婴儿配方粉专项监测及风险监测数据，结合国内外相关资料，应用@RISK软件对黑龙江省婴儿配方粉从零售到喂养过程中克罗诺杆菌引起的疾病风险进行评估。 结果： 定量风险评估的预测结果显示，黑龙江省目前的消费模式引起克罗诺杆菌食源性疾病的风险为5.2×10-5人/百万（40.0 ℃和50.0 ℃）、1.1×10-7人/百万（60.0 ℃）、5.5×10-14人/百万（70.0 ℃）。将婴儿配方粉喂养时间分别调整为0~2 h和2~3 h，上述预测结果没有变化；调整为3~4 h，风险有所增加；调整为4~24 h，室温储存引起克罗诺杆菌增殖14~24个数量级。若将初始污染浓度（冲调后）调整为1 MPN/ml，每餐患病风险平均值为805.7人/百万（40.0 ℃和50.0 ℃）、1.7人/百万（60.0 ℃）、9.1×10-7人/百万（70.0 ℃）。敏感性分析结果显示，冲调水温（70.0 ℃）、初始污染浓度、室温储存时间和温度是影响风险相关性的重要因素。 结论： 控制婴儿配方粉中克罗诺杆菌污染水平、喂养时间控制在3 h以内、冰箱储存、不低于70.0 ℃的水冲调是预防婴儿因食用婴儿配方粉感染克罗诺杆菌的有效措施。.