Is the assessment approach of Sustainable Development Goal 11.3.1 justified? Evidence from the drivers of future urban land use efficiency

Increased urban land use efficiency (ULUE) is a pivotal symbol of urbanization's evolution from rapid expansion to a focus on high-quality development. However, the extent to which the spatial-temporal trends in China's future urban sprawl efficiency could hinder the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11: "Building Sustainable Cities and Communities" remains uncertain. This study endeavors to shed light on this issue, offering insights that could facilitate the dynamic adjustment of land resource use efficiency assessment strategies to align with the SDG11 urbanization process. We leverage socio-economic shared pathways (SSPs) thematic data through the application of the slack-variable-based data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) methodology to project ULUE for China's 368 prefectural-level administrative divisions from 2020 to 2050. In addition, we utilize the coupled coordination degree (CCD) model to anticipate the future harmonization trend of the ULUE with the UN's endorsed SDG indicator, SDG11.3.1: "Land Consumption Rate to Population Growth Rate (LCRPGR)". We harness tools such as Kernel Density Analysis, Moran's Index, and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) to unveil the principal factors influencing the CCD changes and spatial clustering trends. We find that: the higher ULUE areas in China gradually shift from coastal cities and provincial capitals to the western regions, and the value of China's LCRPGR gradually decreases. By 2050, China's ULUE and LCRPGR will reach a high degree of coupling under the SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5 routes. The spatial heterogeneity of the CCD is increasing, with urban land areas having the most substantial adverse effect on CCD, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, and metropolitan green space areas having sequentially decreasing positive effects on CCD. This study assesses the future SDG 11.3.1 process, which helps to adjust the assessment strategy of SDG11 in due time and promote sustainable urban development.