Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk by serum zinc and copper concentrations and anthropometric measurements

We aimed to investigate the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and various anthropometric indices, as well as the serum levels of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn), copper-zinc ratio (Cu/Zn ratio) and zinc-copper ratio (Zn/Cu ratio), in a large population sample from northeastern Iranian. 9704 individuals aged 35 to 65 were enrolled in the first phase of the study. After a 10-year follow-up, 7560 participants were enrolled into the second phase. The variables used in this study included demographic characteristics, such as gender and age; biochemical parameters including: serum Zn, Cu, Cu/Zn ratio, and Zn/Cu ratio; anthropometric parameters including: waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). The relationship between the aforementioned indices and CVD was examined using decision tree (DT) and logistic regression (LR) models. A total of 837 individuals were diagnosed with CVD among the 7560 participants. LR analysis showed that BMI, age, WH zinc-copper ratio (Zn/Cu ratio), and serum Zn/Cu ratio were significantly associated the development of CVD in men, and WHR, age, BMI, serum Cu, and Cu/Zn ratio in women. DT analysis showed that, age was the most important predictor of CVD in both genders. 71% of women, older than 49 years, with a WHR≥0.89, serum Cu<75 (µg/dl), BMI≥22.93 (kg/m2), and serum Cu≥14 (µg/dl), had the highest risk of CVD. In men, among those who were ≥53 years, with a WHR≥0.98, serum Zn/Cu ratio<1.69, and BMI≥22.30, had the highest risk of CVD. Among Iranian adult population, BMI, age, and WHR were one of the predictors of CVD for both genders. The Zn/Cu ratio was CVD predictor for men while Cu/Zn ratio was CVD predictor for women.