Drivers of carbon intensity decline during the new economic normal: A multilevel decomposition of the Guangdong case

The New Economic Normal is a revolutionary change in China's economic development model, and it is of great significance to understand the characteristics and drivers of carbon intensity (CI) under the New Economic Normal at multiple levels for formulating carbon mitigation plans. By coupling subsystem analysis and structural decomposition analysis, this study examines the characteristics and drivers of Guangdong's CI from 2007 to 2017 from multiple demand-side perspectives. It reveals in detail the impact of economic structural changes on CI during the New Economic Normal, especially demand transformations. Moreover, it outlines a methodology for providing further insights into the mechanisms of drivers in reducing CI from an industrial linkage perspective. The results show that 1) Interprovincial trade has replaced investment as the demand type with the highest CI during the New Norm. 2) Production restructuring has replaced energy efficiency improvement as the largest driver of CI decline. In contrast, changes in consumption patterns and demand conversion within the economic inner-cycle strategy impeded CI decline. 3) Production or demand restructuring has differential impacts on CI of different sectors or demand types, with offsetting effects even sometimes leading to insignificant overall impacts. 4) In industrial linkage, restructuring promoted CI associated with internal linkages and suppressed CI associated with cross-sectoral linkages, further altering the linkage characteristics of CI. The findings and research methodology will provide theoretical support for the formulation of carbon mitigation strategies in Guangdong and other regions.