Prediction of tissue and clinical thrombectomy outcome in acute ischaemic stroke using deep learning

Abstract The advent of endovascular thrombectomy has significantly improved outcomes for stroke patients with intracranial large vessel occlusion, yet individual benefits can vary widely. As demand for thrombectomy rises and geographic disparities in stroke care access persist, there is a growing need for predictive models that quantify individual benefits. However, current imaging methods for estimating outcomes may not fully capture the dynamic nature of cerebral ischemia and lack a patient-specific assessment of thrombectomy benefits. Our study introduces a deep learning approach to predict individual responses to thrombectomy in acute ischemic stroke patients. The proposed models provide predictions for both tissue and clinical outcomes under two scenarios: one assuming successful reperfusion and another assuming unsuccessful reperfusion. The resulting simulations of penumbral salvage and difference in NIHSS at discharge quantify the potential individual benefits of the intervention. Our models were developed on an extensive dataset from routine stroke care, which included 405 ischemic stroke patients who underwent thrombectomy. We used acute data for training (n = 304), including multimodal CT imaging and clinical characteristics, along with post hoc markers like thrombectomy success, final infarct localization, and NIHSS at discharge. We benchmarked our tissue outcome predictions under the observed reperfusion scenario against a thresholding-based clinical method and a generalised linear model. Our deep-learning model showed significant superiority, with a mean Dice score of 0.48 on internal (n = 50) and 0.52 on external (n = 51) test data, versus 0.26/0.36 and 0.34/0.35 for the baselines, respectively. The NIHSS sum score prediction achieved median absolute errors of 1.5 NIHSS points on the internal test dataset and 3.0 NIHSS points on the external test dataset, outperforming other machine learning models. By predicting the patient-specific response to thrombectomy for both tissue and clinical outcomes, our approach offers an innovative biomarker that captures the dynamics of cerebral ischemia. We believe this method holds significant potential to enhance personalised therapeutic strategies and to facilitate efficient resource allocation in acute stroke care.