A Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Pulmonary Complications in Critical Patients Transferred to ICU After Abdominal Surgery

Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate the risk factors associated with postoperative pulmonary complications(PPCs) in critically ill patients transferred to intensive care unit(ICU) after abdominal surgery and develop a predictive model for this disease. Methods Data for 3716 patients who were admitted to ICU after abdominal surgery in Peking University People's Hospital between January 2015 and December 2020 were retrospectively collected and analyzed to identify the risk factors and develop a nomogram prediction model. Data for patients admitted to ICU following abdominal surgery at Peking University People's Hospital from March 2021 to December 2022 were prospectively collected as a validation set to validate and assess the model. Results 10 independent risk factors for PPCs in critically ill patients transferred to ICU after abdominal surgery were identified. A nomogram prediction model was constructed for PPCs in this group patients, the area under ROC curve was 0.771[95%CI: 0.756,0.786] and 0.759[95%CI: 0.726,0.792] in the training set and validation set, respectively. Conclusions In this study, independent risk factors for PPCs in critically ill patients transferred to ICU after abdominal surgery were identified. A nomogram prediction model for PPCs in critically ill surgical population was constructed using these factors, demonstrating a good predictive value.