Trajectory Analysis of Healthcare Use Before and After Gastrointestinal Cancer Surgery

Background: Frailty correlates with worse post-operative outcomes and higher surgical costs, but the long-term impact on healthcare utilization remains ill-defined. We sought to evaluate patterns of healthcare utilization pre- and post-surgery among patients with gastrointestinal cancer and characterize the association with frailty. Study Design: Data on patients who underwent surgical resection for liver, biliary, pancreatic, colon and rectal cancer were obtained from the 2005-2020 SEER-Medicare database. Frailty was assessed using the claims-based frailty index. Group-based trajectory modelling identified clusters of patients with discrete patterns of healthcare utilization. Multivariable regression was performed to predict cluster membership based on preoperative factors, including frailty. Results: Among 66,684 beneficiaries, four distinct utilization trajectories based on data from 12 months before and after surgery were identified. Following a surge in utilization during the month of surgery, most patients reverted to pre-surgery baseline utilization (low: n=6588, 9.9%; moderate: n=17,627, 26.4%; high: n=29,850, 44.8%). However, a notable trajectory involving 12,619 (18.9%) patients was identified, wherein surgery precipitated a transition from a "low" pre-surgery utilization state to a "high" utilization state post-surgery. Frail patients were more likely to be among those individuals who transitioned to high utilizers (low: 4.2% vs. vs. transition: 12.6% vs. high: 7.5%; p<0.001). On multivariable analysis incorporating preoperative variables, frailty was associated with high group trajectory membership (ref: least and moderate; highest: OR 4.90, 95%CI 4.49-5.35; p<0.001). Conclusions: Patients with gastrointestinal cancer demonstrated distinct clusters of healthcare utilization after surgical resection. Preoperative predictive models may help differentiate different health care utilization trajectories to help tailor care for patients in the postoperative period.