An integrated hydrodynamic and multicriteria evaluation Cellular Automata–Markov model to assess the effects of a water resource project on waterbird habitat in wetlands

Large water resource projects may severely alter hydrological regimes and thus the habitat conditions for biota in wetlands. Plenty of habitat models for fish, vegetation, and invertebrates have been developed and widely used; however, there is a lack of effective models to assess the effects of water resource projects on waterbird habitat in wetlands. This study developed a habitat model by integrating two-dimensional hydrodynamic, multicriteria evaluation Cellular Automata–Markov and habitat suitability modules (HMH) to evaluate the effects of hydraulic structures on the habitat of waterbirds in wetlands. The developed HMH model was applied to the Duchang Provincial Nature Reserve (DPNR) of Poyang Lake in China, which is an important conservation wetland in the Ramsar Convention. For demonstration, the HMH model analyzed the habitat suitability for Grus leucogeranus, a rare species in the region, with a scheduled sluice under two different regulating rules (named Rule 1 and Rule 2), and compared it to the habitat suitability without the sluice. Results showed that the sluice operations would increase the water body during dry seasons, and thus increase the area of shallow water, a preferential habitat to Grus leucogeranus. The sluice operation in Rule 1 would either change the location or remarkably reduced the area of suitable habitat in the northern DPNR. The sluice operation in Rule 2 would either slightly increase the area or change the location of suitable habitats in the northern DPNR. The study demonstrated that the developed method for habitat suitability assessment could provide a viable approach for eco-hydrological management of wetlands.