How much reduction in portal pressure is necessary to prevent variceal rebleeding? a longitudinal study in 225 patients with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

This longitudinal study determines the risk of rebleeding in relation to the reduction of the portosystemic pressure gradient in patients with a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) for variceal bleeding.The study included 225 patients in whom a TIPS revision was indicated by the endoscopic finding of varices with a high risk for rebleeding (n = 167) or a recent variceal rebleed (n = 58). The portosystemic pressure gradient was determined before and after TIPS placement and at revision performed after a mean of 10 +/- 15 months.The portosystemic pressure gradient at revision approached the index pressure gradient before TIPS implantation (23.1 +/- 5.5 mm Hg) by 8.4 +/- 31%. Rebleeding was inversely correlated with the reduction in index pressure gradient found at revision. Thus, 80% of rebleedings occurred with pressure gradients close to the index pressure gradient (< 25% reduction) or with gradients equal to or greater than the index pressure gradient. In contrast, only one patient (0.4%) and three patients (1.3%) rebled with a pressure gradient of < 12 mm Hg or a reduction of the index pressure gradient by > 50%, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis of rebleeding, which included the 225 patients at risk, showed a probability of rebleeding of 18%, 7%, and 1% for a reduction of the index pressure gradient by 0%, 25-50%, and > 50%, respectively.Most rebleedings occurred with pressure gradients similar to the index-pressure gradient measured at first bleeding. Accordingly, a graded reduction by 25-50% sufficiently prevents rebleeding. It can be assumed that, in comparison with the widely used threshold value of 12 mm Hg, a reduction by 25-50% may have a favorable benefit-to-risk ratio with respect to shunt-induced hepatic encephalopathy and liver failure. It should therefore be a goal in the decompressive treatment of portal hypertension and maintained during follow-up of patients with variceal bleeding.