An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts

德尔菲 德尔菲法 计算机科学 订单(交换) 专家意见 运筹学 管理科学 数据科学 人工智能 业务 数学 经济 财务 医学 操作系统 重症监护医学
作者
Norman C. Dalkey,Olaf Helmer
出处
期刊:Management Science [Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences]
卷期号:9 (3): 458-467 被引量:5123
标识
DOI:10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458
摘要

AboutSectionsView PDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail Go to Section HomeManagement ScienceVol. 9, No. 3 An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of ExpertsNorman Dalkey, Olaf HelmerNorman Dalkey, Olaf HelmerPublished Online:1 Apr 1963https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458AbstractThis paper gives an account of an experiment in the use of the so-called DELPHI method, which was devised in order to obtain the most reliable opinion consensus of a group of experts by subjecting them to a series of questionnaires in depth interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. 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