Analytical seismic fragility functions for highway and railway embankments and cuts

Summary A fundamental tool in seismic risk assessment of transportation systems is the fragility curve, which describes the probability that a structure will reach or exceed a certain damage state for a given ground motion intensity. Fragility curves are usually represented by two‐parameter (median and log‐standard deviation) cumulative lognormal distributions. In this paper, a numerical approach, in the spirit of the IDA, is applied for the development of fragility curves for highways and railways on embankments and in cuts due to seismic shaking. The response of the geo‐construction to increasing levels of seismic intensity is evaluated using a 2D nonlinear finite element model, with an elasto‐plastic criterion to simulate the soil behavior. A calibration procedure is followed in order to account for the dependency of both the stiffness and the damping to the soil strain level. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the response of the embankment and cut is taken into account considering different typical soil profiles and seismic input motions. This study will provide input for the assessment of the vulnerability of the road/railway network regarding the performance of the embankments and cuts; therefore, the level of damage is described in terms of the permanent ground displacement in these structures. The fragility curves are estimated based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity, which is described by PGA. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of new fragility curves considering the distinctive features of the element's geometry, the input motion, and the soil properties as well as the associated uncertainties. A relationship between the computed permanent ground displacement on the surface of the embankment and the PGA in the free field is also suggested based on the results of the numerical analyses. Finally, the proposed fragility curves are compared with existing empirical data and the limitations of their applicability are outlined. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.