Risk assessment of dietary exposure to aflatoxin B1 in Serbia

Classified as Group 1 carcinogens aflatoxins (AFs) are of major concern for food safety and public health. Within the AFs group, aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) occurs at the highest levels in different food products and is considered as the most potent representative. A total of 463 samples of products susceptible to contamination with AFB1 and commonly consumed in Serbia were collected and analyzed. Consumption surveys were performed using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and 24-h recall-based method. Monte Carlo simulation of 100,000 iterations was performed to estimate the intake of AFB1 through each food category, while a simple distribution approach was performed to estimate overall exposure of tested population groups. Risk characterization was performed by calculation of the Margin of Exposure (MOE) and by calculation of the number of possible hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases. The highest exposure was observed in children with the mean overall estimated daily intake (EDI) in the range of 0.79–1.10 and 1.20–1.66 ng kg−1 bw day−1, followed by adolescents 0.56–0.81 and 0.94–1.32 ng kg−1 bw day−1, adult females 0.52–0.72 and 0.56–0.76 ng kg−1 bw day−1 and adult males with the mean overall EDI in the range of 0.39–0.56 and 0.47–0.66 ng kg−1 bw day−1 depending on consumption survey method and for the lower (LB) and upper bound (UB) scenario. MOE values that resulted from the mean values of the overall EDI of AFB1 were low, indicating high concern for all population groups. Based on obtained mean values of the overall EDI higher estimates of possible HCC cases caused by exposure to AFB1 were in the range of 0.01–0.02 cases/year/105 individuals, depending on the population group.